* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA PROXY USED, OHC AVAILABLE * * THREE CP032026 10/25/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 31 31 30 29 30 32 31 28 24 22 23 25 22 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 30 31 31 31 30 29 30 32 31 28 24 22 23 25 22 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 30 29 25 22 19 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 6 7 7 12 17 13 24 32 47 53 54 54 53 57 45 32 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 13 16 20 19 13 5 1 2 7 8 2 5 11 10 12 12 15 SHEAR DIR 205 225 192 186 181 203 198 204 202 218 232 248 267 281 289 294 301 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.9 28.5 28.1 27.7 27.1 26.4 26.6 25.9 25.9 26.4 26.0 POT. INT. (KT) 154 154 156 158 155 154 154 151 148 143 136 129 133 127 129 134 129 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.5 -51.3 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.1 -52.1 -52.5 -52.5 -53.6 -53.7 -53.7 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 4 4 3 3 3 3 3 4 3 700-500 MB RH 68 68 65 63 63 62 60 61 62 63 61 60 60 59 49 37 35 MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 15 15 14 12 11 11 11 11 10 10 11 15 16 15 13 850 MB ENV VOR 61 59 67 82 96 107 107 93 98 75 60 59 38 39 49 60 47 200 MB DIV 42 7 8 19 28 35 48 64 105 105 66 10 -20 -28 -45 -40 -4 700-850 TADV 1 -1 -1 -3 -4 0 -5 -13 -18 -9 -10 -8 -5 -20 -42 -52 -50 LAND (KM) 2228 2145 2038 1924 1822 1630 1400 1111 737 382 72 133 304 560 1030 1676 2077 LAT (DEG N) 14.3 14.4 14.4 14.2 14.0 14.0 14.7 16.2 18.1 19.9 21.6 22.9 23.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 179.8 179.0 177.9 176.6 175.4 173.3 171.2 169.0 166.1 163.3 160.9 158.3 155.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 9 12 12 11 10 12 15 17 15 13 14 18 24 30 30 26 HEAT CONTENT 49 50 53 55 51 47 48 39 32 27 13 4 6 0 0 2 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM TABM INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 75/ 6 CX,CY: 6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 645 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 21. 26. 29. 29. 30. 29. 30. 31. 34. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. -3. -8. -14. -17. -19. -19. -20. -24. -30. -36. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -7. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. -3. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -2. -3. -5. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -6. -1. 0. -1. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. 0. 2. 1. -2. -6. -8. -7. -5. -8. -15. -23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 14.3 179.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP032026 THREE 10/25/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 120.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 20.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.26 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9999.0 37.8 to 2.1 999.00 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 58.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.54 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 9999.0 -15.6 to -90.4 999.00 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 9999% is 9999.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Logistic: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Bayesian: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% Consensus: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP032026 THREE 10/25/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##