* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MOKE CP022026 08/24/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 28 26 25 26 26 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 30 28 26 25 26 26 28 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 30 28 26 25 24 24 23 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 13 14 14 12 12 16 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 1 -3 -2 3 6 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 218 237 237 234 219 218 222 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.7 28.8 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 150 152 152 151 151 153 154 154 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -51.5 -52.0 -52.0 -52.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.0 0.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 8 9 9 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 52 55 57 57 54 54 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 11 10 9 9 10 8 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 85 78 70 62 59 34 29 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 11 9 21 40 33 7 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 7 8 4 2 2 12 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 461 524 613 678 697 799 993 1190 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.3 15.5 15.6 15.9 16.1 16.6 17.1 17.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 157.8 159.1 160.4 161.7 163.0 165.5 168.3 170.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 13 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 37 36 33 35 44 43 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 606 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 11.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 7. 13. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -1. -3. -4. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -4. -4. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 15.3 157.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 MOKE 08/24/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 120.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.77 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 22.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.46 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 206.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.36 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.88 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -4.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 17.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.7% 12.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.0% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 5.4% 4.3% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.7% 2.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 MOKE 08/24/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##