* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MOKE CP022026 08/23/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 38 36 35 35 37 39 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 38 36 35 35 37 39 42 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 40 39 38 38 38 39 40 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 11 11 13 14 14 15 19 15 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 3 1 -1 0 1 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 215 210 218 212 199 202 218 267 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.5 28.5 28.8 28.8 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 152 151 152 151 151 154 154 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.7 -51.6 -52.4 -52.4 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.4 -0.1 -0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 52 52 52 51 53 50 49 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 13 11 11 10 10 9 8 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 75 78 76 66 56 35 22 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -15 5 13 20 17 32 42 23 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 0 1 5 5 2 0 9 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 414 421 468 545 643 691 807 1017 1274 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.8 16.4 17.2 18.0 19.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 155.7 157.0 158.3 159.6 160.9 163.5 166.2 169.1 172.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 13 13 14 14 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 34 32 40 34 36 44 35 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 14 CX,CY: -13/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 696 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 17. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -4. -6. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -5. -3. -1. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.2 155.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 MOKE 08/23/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.68 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.40 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 287.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.58 -3.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 8.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.17 0.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 39.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.36 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -34.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.25 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.5% 14.6% 13.4% 12.3% 0.0% 17.9% 15.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.2% 5.2% 4.6% 4.1% 0.0% 6.0% 5.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 3.1% 2.3% 2.0% 0.0% 3.0% 2.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 MOKE 08/23/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##