* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MOKE CP022026 08/23/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 34 32 34 36 37 38 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 34 32 34 36 37 38 38 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 38 36 34 33 32 33 34 34 33 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 16 12 8 11 13 14 17 19 19 20 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 4 3 1 -2 0 2 4 0 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 242 242 221 206 213 204 207 207 237 288 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.5 28.7 28.9 29.2 29.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 152 150 152 149 151 153 155 158 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 -0.1 0.0 0.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 51 52 52 52 53 53 53 49 44 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 13 12 12 11 10 9 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 76 75 77 78 73 51 37 23 11 8 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 0 -14 0 7 7 17 22 30 1 -10 -27 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 3 -2 0 4 5 4 4 9 6 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 459 419 423 461 533 634 694 880 1113 1360 1583 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.0 15.2 15.3 15.6 15.8 16.4 17.1 17.5 18.0 18.5 19.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 154.3 155.6 156.9 158.3 159.6 162.2 164.6 167.3 170.1 172.8 175.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 12 13 13 14 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 30 31 35 31 40 32 34 39 40 38 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 12 CX,CY: -11/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -7. -9. -11. -11. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -6. -8. -6. -4. -3. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.0 154.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 MOKE 08/23/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 111.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.68 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.37 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 276.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.34 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 38.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.35 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.95 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -5.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 17.0% 15.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.7% 5.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 2.8% 2.5% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 MOKE 08/23/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##