* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MOKE CP022026 08/23/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 37 35 33 32 31 32 32 33 32 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 40 37 35 33 32 31 32 32 33 32 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 40 37 35 33 31 29 28 28 28 26 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 18 16 12 7 11 14 16 18 19 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 3 4 1 -3 -3 2 6 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 239 245 257 223 203 225 213 217 221 263 287 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.6 28.6 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.8 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 151 151 150 150 148 149 150 150 151 154 164 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.5 -52.4 -52.6 -52.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 -0.1 0.0 0.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 55 54 53 54 54 53 55 55 54 52 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 13 13 12 11 9 9 8 7 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 77 69 70 76 77 54 45 27 12 2 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 7 -8 3 10 24 6 20 18 -7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 8 3 2 3 5 4 1 8 5 5 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 520 441 387 365 397 541 608 721 885 1127 1421 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.5 15.7 15.9 16.3 16.8 17.4 18.2 18.6 18.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 152.7 153.9 155.0 156.4 157.7 160.1 162.6 165.3 167.8 170.5 173.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 13 12 12 13 13 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 32 32 31 30 27 36 31 32 36 40 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 20.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -2. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -12. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -9. -8. -8. -7. -8. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 15.2 152.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 MOKE 08/23/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.68 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.39 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 257.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.61 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 7.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.20 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.86 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 3.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 MOKE 08/23/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##