* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MOKE CP022026 08/23/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 44 41 40 38 37 37 36 36 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 44 41 40 38 37 37 36 36 36 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 44 42 40 38 35 34 34 34 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 18 19 13 9 12 13 18 19 21 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 1 1 0 0 -3 0 3 4 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 235 241 249 255 223 224 214 213 226 258 302 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.5 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.4 28.3 29.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 147 150 151 149 148 149 151 149 149 148 160 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.6 -52.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 -0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 57 56 55 54 54 51 53 54 56 54 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 14 13 13 11 10 9 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 81 77 65 63 67 59 40 28 15 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 40 36 18 -7 -1 10 30 22 23 4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 12 5 3 3 3 3 5 2 10 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 590 501 414 358 341 425 571 628 794 1004 1250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 15.2 15.4 15.6 15.8 15.9 16.4 16.8 17.4 17.9 18.5 19.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 151.5 152.7 153.9 155.0 156.2 158.8 161.5 164.0 166.6 169.2 171.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 11 11 12 13 13 12 13 13 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 26 32 31 29 27 32 33 30 35 27 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -7. -9. -9. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. -13. -15. -16. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -5. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 15.2 151.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 MOKE 08/23/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.62 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.37 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 280.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.59 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.76 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -24.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.12 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.6% 19.8% 16.5% 13.1% 10.7% 19.3% 17.7% 12.9% Logistic: 0.1% 0.6% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.8% 5.6% 4.4% 3.6% 6.5% 6.0% 4.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 3.9% 2.8% 2.2% 1.8% 3.2% 3.0% 2.1% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 MOKE 08/23/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##