* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MOKE CP022026 08/22/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 46 45 44 42 41 41 41 42 42 40 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 46 45 44 42 41 41 41 42 42 40 42 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 45 43 40 38 37 37 36 33 31 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 14 14 16 15 11 10 14 17 19 19 27 34 43 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 2 -3 -3 1 5 1 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 234 234 237 245 258 221 229 226 215 243 299 304 321 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.6 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.5 28.7 29.3 29.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 146 148 151 151 149 147 148 149 149 151 152 157 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.7 -51.3 -51.2 -51.4 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -51.9 -52.3 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 58 58 56 54 55 53 51 54 55 54 52 51 54 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 14 14 13 11 9 8 8 7 5 6 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 72 73 65 61 65 46 39 20 8 -5 -3 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 33 37 27 29 0 18 13 10 4 -2 26 11 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 11 11 3 4 1 4 6 1 7 7 5 3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 685 599 520 427 361 377 537 588 683 863 1110 1308 1417 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.8 15.0 15.2 15.5 15.7 16.0 16.5 17.0 17.5 18.1 18.8 19.2 19.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 150.6 151.7 152.7 154.0 155.2 157.5 160.2 162.6 164.9 167.5 170.4 172.5 173.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 12 12 12 12 12 12 14 12 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 28 32 32 29 26 36 31 30 39 37 36 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 579 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 18. 19. 20. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -10. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -11. -13. -14. -13. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -3. -5. -3. -4. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.8 150.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 MOKE 08/22/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 104.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.62 5.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 275.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 25.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.29 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.56 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 32.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.30 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 16.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.73 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.60 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 20.7% 17.0% 14.0% 10.8% 20.0% 17.9% 14.3% Logistic: 1.5% 3.6% 1.4% 1.0% 0.3% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.9% 8.4% 6.2% 5.0% 3.7% 7.0% 6.2% 4.9% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.4% 5.2% 3.6% 2.5% 1.8% 3.5% 3.1% 2.4% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 MOKE 08/22/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##