* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MOKE CP022026 08/22/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 45 45 43 41 40 39 40 40 39 38 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 45 45 43 41 40 39 40 40 39 38 39 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 46 46 44 43 40 38 37 37 37 35 32 30 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 15 14 14 15 14 10 12 13 18 20 29 28 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 2 0 1 2 0 -4 -3 -1 2 3 3 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 237 242 238 238 240 238 224 227 218 227 276 299 312 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.3 28.0 28.3 28.5 28.6 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 29.4 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 148 144 148 150 151 147 147 149 149 149 149 159 156 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.8 -52.0 -52.3 -52.3 -52.4 -52.3 -52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0.1 0.0 -0.2 0.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 9 10 9 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 56 56 55 56 54 50 48 50 51 51 50 50 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 16 15 14 13 12 11 9 8 7 6 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 82 78 69 68 61 55 52 34 27 8 -1 -5 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 25 30 37 33 31 0 0 14 13 -11 -12 10 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 5 9 11 2 0 1 3 5 1 8 4 7 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 766 665 568 492 419 326 435 547 613 779 999 1196 1382 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 14.6 15.0 15.3 15.4 15.5 16.1 16.6 17.0 17.5 18.0 18.4 18.9 19.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.7 150.7 151.7 152.9 154.0 156.5 159.1 161.4 163.9 166.5 169.1 171.3 173.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 11 12 12 12 12 12 13 12 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 20 19 28 32 32 25 32 33 30 33 27 53 29 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 40 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 596 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 20. 20. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -10. -11. -11. -11. -10. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -7. -10. -13. -14. -15. -15. -14. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -6. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 14.6 149.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 MOKE 08/22/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 103.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.62 5.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 24.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.37 2.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 274.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.60 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 3.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.51 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -67.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.69 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 20.9% 16.7% 13.3% 10.1% 18.8% 17.2% 14.7% Logistic: 1.7% 3.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.3% 0.5% 0.4% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 8.4% 6.1% 4.8% 3.5% 6.5% 5.9% 5.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.0% 5.2% 3.5% 2.9% 1.7% 3.7% 2.9% 2.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 MOKE 08/22/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##