* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MOKE CP022026 08/22/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 39 38 37 35 33 32 32 33 33 33 33 35 36 39 41 42 V (KT) LAND 40 39 38 37 35 33 32 32 33 33 33 33 35 36 39 41 42 V (KT) LGEM 40 41 41 39 38 34 30 28 27 27 25 23 20 18 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 14 15 14 16 14 12 13 16 21 22 33 33 50 40 42 48 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 2 1 2 -1 -1 -3 -2 1 6 3 3 -4 3 6 4 SHEAR DIR 216 232 235 232 234 241 227 233 220 221 252 306 322 323 323 322 325 SST (C) 28.9 28.5 28.3 28.4 28.5 28.3 28.1 28.2 28.3 28.3 28.4 28.3 29.0 28.9 28.7 28.7 28.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 149 147 148 150 148 146 148 148 148 149 149 156 153 150 151 151 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.4 -51.3 -51.7 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -52.4 -52.4 -52.6 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.1 -0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 -0.1 -0.1 -0.2 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 7 6 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 56 58 58 58 59 55 52 52 51 52 52 52 51 51 56 61 66 MODEL VTX (KT) 17 17 17 16 15 13 11 9 8 8 7 6 5 4 4 4 3 850 MB ENV VOR 85 85 79 73 73 59 57 42 31 16 5 -2 7 0 0 -6 -10 200 MB DIV 0 33 36 51 40 17 7 15 19 0 -7 0 7 -3 20 -6 -32 700-850 TADV 3 6 9 10 3 1 2 4 2 8 4 6 4 0 0 2 0 LAND (KM) 882 782 685 594 508 341 353 517 583 675 809 1035 1374 1616 1760 1901 2054 LAT (DEG N) 14.1 14.5 14.8 15.2 15.5 15.9 16.3 16.7 17.2 17.8 18.4 18.7 18.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 148.7 149.7 150.6 151.5 152.4 155.1 157.6 160.1 162.9 165.1 167.1 169.6 172.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 9 11 12 12 13 12 10 11 14 13 10 7 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 25 22 24 27 33 26 23 33 29 30 34 27 37 46 40 30 41 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 35 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 521 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 30.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 30.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 12. 16. 19. 21. 22. 23. 25. 26. 27. 28. 30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -22. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -9. -8. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -13. -14. -14. -13. -13. -12. -11. -11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -7. -5. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -7. -7. -7. -7. -5. -4. -1. 1. 2. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 14.1 148.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 MOKE 08/22/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 109.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.67 5.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.8 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.34 2.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 229.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.65 -3.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 32.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.32 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 30.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.21 0.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 14.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.76 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -26.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.14 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.6% 14.9% 13.2% 11.4% 8.8% 16.4% 14.8% 13.0% Logistic: 0.5% 1.5% 0.5% 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 5.5% 4.6% 3.9% 3.0% 5.5% 4.9% 4.4% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 3.7% 2.8% 1.9% 1.5% 3.2% 2.9% 2.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 MOKE 08/22/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##