* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MOKE CP022026 08/22/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 40 41 41 40 39 38 37 38 38 39 38 38 39 42 46 50 52 V (KT) LAND 40 41 41 40 39 38 37 38 38 39 38 38 39 42 46 50 52 V (KT) LGEM 40 43 45 45 44 41 37 35 35 35 34 33 31 29 26 25 23 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 14 17 17 15 11 11 13 18 22 28 25 29 25 21 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 2 1 1 -1 -2 -2 -4 -4 -1 -3 3 3 4 3 5 4 SHEAR DIR 215 223 233 238 246 251 248 230 228 217 221 275 304 289 303 304 344 SST (C) 29.0 28.8 28.5 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 28.4 28.6 28.4 28.6 29.0 29.0 28.9 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 153 150 148 150 149 148 148 151 149 151 148 150 153 154 153 152 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.5 -51.7 -51.8 -51.5 -51.6 -51.6 -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.4 -52.5 -52.7 -52.8 -52.8 -52.7 -52.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.1 -0.2 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 7 6 7 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 57 57 59 58 58 60 54 54 51 51 53 52 55 60 62 61 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 16 16 15 13 11 11 9 8 7 6 5 5 4 3 2 850 MB ENV VOR 82 86 86 79 73 68 59 54 40 35 20 13 13 11 15 4 3 200 MB DIV -11 8 19 33 45 40 8 26 35 11 -9 -25 27 41 -1 -23 -14 700-850 TADV 1 0 1 6 10 4 1 2 5 0 7 3 5 1 0 -1 0 LAND (KM) 977 871 768 669 575 400 357 480 596 687 830 989 1139 1284 1434 1616 1827 LAT (DEG N) 13.8 14.1 14.4 14.8 15.1 15.6 15.9 16.2 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.0 18.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 147.8 148.9 149.9 150.9 151.9 154.2 156.8 159.3 162.0 164.5 166.8 168.8 170.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 10 9 8 7 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 28 25 22 26 32 29 28 35 32 32 39 30 38 46 39 46 38 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 608 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 31.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 40.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 26. 27. 29. 31. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -11. -12. -13. -13. -13. -12. -10. -9. -8. -7. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. -0. -1. -4. -6. -9. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -5. -5. -5. -5. -6. -6. -5. -4. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -1. 2. 6. 10. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 40. LAT, LON: 13.8 147.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 MOKE 08/22/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 110.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.68 5.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 3.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 231.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.64 -3.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : 18.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.25 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 40.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 31.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.19 0.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 6.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.89 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -16.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.01 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 15.4% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 18.4% 16.1% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.2% 0.2% 0.4% Bayesian: 0.2% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 5.7% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 6.2% 5.4% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.1% 4.8% 3.4% 0.5% 0.5% 3.6% 3.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 MOKE 08/22/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##