* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * MOKE CP022026 08/21/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 35 35 34 34 34 32 31 32 32 33 32 33 33 37 40 44 45 V (KT) LAND 35 35 34 34 34 32 31 32 32 33 32 33 33 37 40 44 45 V (KT) LGEM 35 36 36 36 35 32 29 27 25 25 25 24 22 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 13 16 20 21 18 15 13 16 19 24 23 36 33 29 23 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 4 0 -1 -1 -4 -3 -1 -8 -4 -2 0 0 0 1 4 2 SHEAR DIR 207 208 216 230 239 245 244 220 229 226 227 247 289 298 297 297 326 SST (C) 28.9 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.2 28.4 28.1 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.2 28.3 28.4 28.8 28.7 28.7 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 153 153 151 149 147 149 146 147 148 147 147 147 148 151 150 151 153 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.9 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.7 -52.2 -52.0 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.5 -52.7 -52.4 -52.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.1 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 8 9 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 700-500 MB RH 56 57 57 59 57 57 56 54 50 50 50 50 52 55 55 56 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 13 12 11 10 9 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 78 79 77 75 67 56 51 54 35 36 28 21 11 20 10 16 9 200 MB DIV -19 -8 0 28 23 29 7 10 24 20 9 9 -5 33 19 15 -20 700-850 TADV -2 0 0 2 6 3 1 -2 3 -2 2 0 0 -5 -4 -7 -3 LAND (KM) 1076 967 860 751 643 442 293 366 526 579 703 870 1050 1193 1324 1494 1719 LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.5 14.9 15.3 15.9 16.3 16.5 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.5 18.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 146.7 147.7 148.6 149.6 150.6 152.9 155.4 158.1 160.9 163.5 165.7 167.8 169.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 10 10 11 12 13 13 13 12 11 10 9 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 30 26 22 19 18 32 19 26 32 29 29 31 28 43 30 30 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 27.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 18. 22. 24. 25. 27. 27. 28. 29. 31. 34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -10. -12. -14. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -8. -10. -11. -11. -12. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -7. -8. -7. -7. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 5. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -3. -3. -2. -3. -2. -2. 2. 5. 9. 10. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 35. LAT, LON: 13.7 146.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 MOKE 08/21/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 115.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.72 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.29 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 207.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.67 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 4.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 35.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.36 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 2.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.97 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -7.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 13.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.2% 14.9% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 5.4% 5.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 1.0% 4.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 4.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 3.2% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 MOKE 08/21/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##