* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022026 08/21/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 29 29 29 29 28 28 29 30 31 32 32 33 34 37 39 42 V (KT) LAND 30 29 29 29 29 28 28 29 30 31 32 32 33 34 37 39 42 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 29 29 28 26 24 22 21 21 21 21 20 19 18 17 16 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 8 11 15 17 16 15 12 14 16 20 21 31 30 34 29 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 6 1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -6 -7 -3 -2 0 -2 -2 0 3 SHEAR DIR 207 209 190 199 224 243 246 245 218 234 234 244 266 284 284 295 313 SST (C) 29.1 29.0 28.8 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 27.9 28.1 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.3 28.2 28.8 28.8 28.8 POT. INT. (KT) 155 154 152 151 149 149 149 144 146 148 148 147 147 145 152 152 152 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -51.6 -51.5 -51.7 -52.0 -51.8 -51.8 -51.8 -52.1 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -53.0 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -52.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.3 0.1 -0.1 -0.3 -0.1 0.1 -0.1 -0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 61 58 61 61 62 59 56 50 49 48 48 49 48 53 55 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 14 14 14 15 15 14 12 11 10 9 8 8 6 6 6 4 5 850 MB ENV VOR 70 75 75 76 70 58 41 43 39 35 35 23 8 4 7 0 0 200 MB DIV 9 -3 -5 15 0 24 8 -1 26 8 19 15 1 15 13 -3 -1 700-850 TADV -6 -1 1 1 2 10 2 1 1 1 -1 5 0 0 0 -2 -2 LAND (KM) 1204 1120 1036 921 806 570 355 299 422 533 591 712 865 1021 1180 1368 1568 LAT (DEG N) 13.2 13.6 13.9 14.4 14.8 15.5 16.1 16.5 16.8 17.1 17.6 18.1 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.6 146.3 147.0 148.0 149.0 151.4 154.1 156.9 159.1 161.3 163.7 165.8 167.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 11 11 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 8 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 27 24 19 26 27 17 31 32 30 29 30 26 44 30 39 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 8 CX,CY: -6/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 25.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 30. 31. 32. 33. 36. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -11. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -10. -11. -12. -12. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -9. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 13.2 145.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 TWO 08/21/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 122.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.78 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 153.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.73 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 3.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.18 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.55 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 30.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.28 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -3.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 15.5% 14.8% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.3% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 5.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 5.2% 5.0% 0.1% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 4.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 3.1% 3.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 TWO 08/21/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##