* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022026 08/21/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 35 35 34 36 38 39 41 43 44 V (KT) LAND 30 30 30 30 30 31 32 34 35 35 34 36 38 39 41 43 44 V (KT) LGEM 30 30 30 30 29 28 27 25 23 23 23 23 22 21 20 19 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 8 9 8 13 15 14 16 15 13 17 18 23 24 34 33 30 28 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 9 5 0 0 0 -1 -4 -2 -5 -3 -3 2 -1 1 1 0 SHEAR DIR 183 203 201 201 208 223 233 246 225 239 237 242 244 272 267 296 320 SST (C) 29.5 29.4 29.1 28.9 28.7 28.1 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.0 28.3 28.2 28.2 28.4 28.5 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 155 153 152 146 149 145 145 145 146 145 148 145 145 148 150 200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.6 -51.7 -51.5 -51.7 -52.2 -51.8 -52.0 -52.2 -52.6 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 -0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 7 8 8 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 62 61 60 61 61 62 56 52 50 49 48 51 51 52 54 54 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 13 13 13 13 13 11 10 9 8 7 8 6 6 6 5 5 850 MB ENV VOR 70 72 76 77 78 62 45 35 41 29 27 24 17 0 5 -4 2 200 MB DIV 48 21 -2 -10 1 -2 20 -3 10 13 5 11 23 0 11 -24 -13 700-850 TADV -8 -5 -1 2 1 5 1 -2 -1 3 -5 2 -1 -2 -3 -3 -4 LAND (KM) 1259 1176 1095 997 899 674 429 258 341 515 514 614 799 950 1077 1254 1504 LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.1 13.3 13.8 14.2 15.2 16.1 16.6 16.8 17.1 17.7 18.2 18.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 145.2 146.0 146.8 147.6 148.4 150.3 152.8 155.6 158.1 160.3 162.5 164.7 167.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 10 12 13 13 12 11 11 11 10 8 8 10 11 HEAT CONTENT 32 33 30 27 24 16 30 16 24 32 26 25 31 24 28 28 27 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 9 CX,CY: -7/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 556 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 46.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 4.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 24. 27. 29. 31. 32. 33. 33. 35. 38. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -10. -13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. -8. -7. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -3. -5. -6. -7. -6. -7. -7. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 4. 6. 8. 9. 12. 13. 14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.9 145.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 TWO 08/21/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 125.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 6.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.36 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 151.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.74 -4.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.31 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.95 1.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -23.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.11 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 16.9% 13.3% 10.8% 0.0% 16.0% 15.1% 15.1% Logistic: 1.2% 4.1% 1.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.4% 0.3% 0.8% Bayesian: 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.9% 7.4% 4.8% 3.8% 0.0% 5.5% 5.1% 5.3% DTOPS: 0.0% 3.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 5.2% 2.9% 1.9% 0.0% 3.2% 3.0% 2.6% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 TWO 08/21/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##