* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022026 08/21/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 40 41 41 41 42 43 44 45 45 43 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 36 38 40 41 41 41 42 43 44 45 45 43 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 31 32 33 33 32 31 29 28 28 29 29 29 28 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 4 9 9 11 12 15 13 13 15 15 15 20 26 29 32 36 34 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 7 6 3 1 1 0 1 -1 -4 -5 -1 -3 1 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 158 167 184 198 194 220 239 219 218 214 229 231 236 252 251 252 253 SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.0 28.8 28.1 28.2 28.2 27.9 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.2 27.7 28.4 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 159 158 157 154 152 145 147 147 144 144 145 145 143 147 141 147 144 200 MB T (C) -51.2 -51.2 -51.6 -51.7 -51.6 -52.0 -52.0 -52.0 -51.9 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.9 -53.2 -53.3 -53.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.0 0.1 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 700-500 MB RH 64 64 63 61 62 63 60 56 53 49 47 47 48 49 51 55 58 MODEL VTX (KT) 12 12 12 13 13 13 12 11 11 9 9 8 7 7 6 6 6 850 MB ENV VOR 64 73 74 79 79 71 58 53 50 42 38 29 18 9 1 0 5 200 MB DIV 86 63 32 15 6 16 17 34 11 13 -1 4 -1 6 11 16 32 700-850 TADV -2 -6 -5 -2 1 1 9 2 0 0 0 -3 0 -3 -1 -5 -4 LAND (KM) 1318 1240 1163 1071 980 767 560 364 248 334 467 482 596 776 994 1167 1275 LAT (DEG N) 12.8 13.1 13.3 13.7 14.1 15.0 15.7 16.3 16.7 17.1 17.6 18.2 18.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 144.6 145.3 146.0 146.8 147.5 149.3 151.3 153.6 155.9 158.3 160.6 162.8 164.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 8 8 9 10 11 11 11 12 11 11 10 12 10 7 5 HEAT CONTENT 32 34 33 29 25 16 24 26 16 25 33 27 24 30 17 30 19 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 12 CX,CY: -10/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 581 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 19. 24. 27. 28. 30. 31. 32. 33. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -8. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. -8. -7. -6. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -3. -3. -2. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 11. 12. 13. 14. 15. 15. 13. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.8 144.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 TWO 08/21/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 126.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.81 6.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 2.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 136.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.75 -4.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 40.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 1.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 34.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.32 1.4 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.99 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -36.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.28 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.0% 19.8% 15.8% 12.7% 0.0% 17.8% 16.1% 15.5% Logistic: 2.2% 9.0% 3.0% 1.7% 0.2% 0.9% 0.5% 1.1% Bayesian: 0.1% 1.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 10.3% 6.4% 4.9% 0.1% 6.2% 5.6% 5.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 6.1% 3.7% 2.4% 0.0% 3.6% 3.3% 2.7% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 TWO 08/21/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##