* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022026 08/20/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 41 45 46 45 44 45 46 47 48 49 49 V (KT) LAND 30 31 32 33 34 38 41 45 46 45 44 45 46 47 48 49 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 32 33 34 34 34 32 30 28 28 28 29 29 27 26 24 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 3 3 10 10 11 14 14 12 14 14 15 17 24 27 31 32 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 3 6 6 2 4 1 3 -3 -3 -5 -6 -3 0 3 2 -2 SHEAR DIR 172 183 175 189 186 192 220 215 230 209 231 229 237 244 249 255 278 SST (C) 29.6 29.4 29.5 29.3 29.0 28.1 28.0 28.2 27.8 27.7 27.8 28.1 27.5 27.9 28.1 27.8 28.3 POT. INT. (KT) 161 158 159 157 154 145 144 147 143 142 143 146 139 143 145 142 147 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.8 -51.8 -52.2 -51.7 -52.0 -52.0 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.4 -53.3 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 66 67 67 64 62 61 59 55 51 47 44 46 49 49 52 55 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 10 11 12 13 13 14 13 13 12 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 6 850 MB ENV VOR 55 66 75 76 83 80 67 58 47 52 38 35 20 11 0 8 9 200 MB DIV 110 84 62 30 10 27 31 29 -3 -5 1 18 -10 15 8 12 14 700-850 TADV 0 -1 -5 -4 0 0 3 2 -2 -6 0 -3 -1 -1 -2 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 1457 1360 1263 1179 1095 866 659 450 236 222 415 442 493 656 836 1005 1165 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.7 13.1 13.5 13.8 14.9 15.6 16.2 17.0 17.4 17.6 18.1 19.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 143.4 144.2 145.0 145.7 146.4 148.2 150.1 152.3 154.7 157.1 159.5 161.8 164.0 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 9 8 8 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 11 11 10 9 9 9 HEAT CONTENT 21 27 35 33 33 17 12 28 14 15 31 27 14 26 22 23 29 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 496 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 25.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 9.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 27. 29. 31. 32. 32. 33. 34. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. -0. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 15. 16. 15. 14. 15. 16. 17. 18. 19. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 12.3 143.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 TWO 08/20/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 128.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.83 6.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.51 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 121.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.77 -4.6 D200 (10**7s-1) : 59.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.45 2.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 25.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.36 1.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 33.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.31 1.3 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -37.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.29 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 16% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 18.7% 15.6% 13.3% 0.0% 18.0% 16.2% 15.8% Logistic: 1.8% 7.5% 3.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.5% 0.3% 0.6% Bayesian: 1.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.1% Consensus: 4.0% 8.9% 6.2% 4.9% 0.1% 6.2% 5.5% 5.5% DTOPS: 0.0% 4.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.0% 6.4% 4.1% 2.4% 0.0% 3.6% 3.2% 3.2% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 TWO 08/20/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##