* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * TWO CP022026 08/20/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 50 54 54 53 49 48 47 48 48 48 49 V (KT) LAND 30 32 34 37 39 45 50 54 54 53 49 48 47 48 48 48 49 V (KT) LGEM 30 31 33 35 37 40 41 40 38 34 32 31 31 31 30 28 26 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 10 3 6 8 9 11 14 16 16 11 13 18 22 30 31 28 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -2 0 4 6 3 3 5 0 -4 -4 -5 0 0 0 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 100 149 136 169 201 174 202 222 249 247 233 260 254 257 283 296 280 SST (C) 29.7 29.6 29.5 29.4 29.2 28.5 28.1 28.0 27.6 27.5 27.8 27.6 27.1 27.7 27.8 27.5 28.2 POT. INT. (KT) 163 161 160 158 156 150 146 145 141 140 143 141 135 141 141 138 146 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -51.9 -51.3 -51.4 -51.6 -51.5 -51.8 -51.4 -51.7 -51.6 -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -53.1 -53.1 -53.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 6 7 7 7 7 7 8 700-500 MB RH 70 67 67 66 63 61 59 52 47 44 44 43 47 48 53 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 15 14 12 11 10 10 8 8 8 850 MB ENV VOR 44 52 66 79 80 90 79 55 47 40 32 20 16 9 11 11 18 200 MB DIV 104 112 82 46 17 20 35 22 2 -11 -1 4 2 -2 -12 -9 -10 700-850 TADV 1 0 0 -3 -5 1 0 8 -2 -3 -3 -2 -4 -1 -4 -3 -3 LAND (KM) 1566 1448 1331 1231 1132 926 690 428 194 144 284 278 415 588 742 915 1100 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 142.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 11 10 9 9 10 12 12 13 12 11 11 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 12 21 29 34 34 21 12 23 12 16 21 17 9 20 21 17 26 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFPI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):295/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 434 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 23.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 52.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 16.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 9. 15. 21. 26. 28. 29. 31. 31. 31. 31. 32. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -2. -5. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. -4. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 8. 7. 7. 3. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 9. 15. 20. 24. 24. 23. 19. 18. 17. 18. 18. 18. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 30. LAT, LON: 11.7 142.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP022026 TWO 08/20/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 129.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.84 7.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.63 4.6 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 109.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.78 -5.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 72.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.52 2.9 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 30.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.21 1.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 23.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.41 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 29.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.27 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 0.0 60.4 to 0.0 1.00 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -25.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.13 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 1.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.6% 21.4% 18.1% 14.9% 0.0% 20.3% 17.7% 14.6% Logistic: 1.1% 5.1% 2.0% 0.9% 0.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.5% Bayesian: 0.9% 1.4% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Consensus: 4.2% 9.3% 6.9% 5.3% 0.1% 6.9% 6.0% 5.0% DTOPS: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% SDCON: 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% 999.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP022026 TWO 08/20/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##