* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/25/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 38 36 33 30 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 45 41 38 36 33 30 25 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 45 42 39 37 35 31 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 5 5 10 13 16 16 17 21 26 13 19 6 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 1 0 0 1 -2 -3 -3 0 -3 4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 321 277 273 280 271 260 316 331 23 7 12 237 212 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.7 23.6 23.5 23.4 23.4 23.8 23.7 23.1 22.6 22.2 21.6 19.0 13.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 97 95 94 94 94 98 97 92 87 83 78 64 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.8 -54.4 -55.0 -54.7 -54.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.4 -54.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 -0.9 0.1 -0.7 -0.6 -1.3 -1.0 -0.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 45 46 46 45 46 46 44 43 41 42 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 24 24 22 23 21 19 15 12 8 5 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 30 22 16 8 -8 -29 -49 -63 -99 -118 -141 -134 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -13 -17 -34 -26 -24 -24 7 -41 -34 -17 31 35 33 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 3 0 0 1 1 1 -1 -1 -10 -7 7 -6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 2186 2226 2265 2315 2338 2287 2246 2205 2095 1947 1777 1496 1137 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 34.9 35.1 35.2 35.5 35.8 36.6 37.2 38.0 38.8 39.8 41.4 44.6 49.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 177.0 177.4 177.8 178.2 178.6 179.4 179.9 180.8 182.3 183.4 183.9 184.1 184.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 4 5 4 4 6 7 7 12 19 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):300/ 5 CX,CY: -3/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 707 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 28.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -9. -14. -23. -33. -42. -50. -57. -65. -72. -66. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 7. 13. 20. 26. 29. 31. 33. 35. 40. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. -1. -2. -5. -6. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -9. -15. -20. -24. -27. -19. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -9. -8. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -7. -9. -12. -15. -20. -29. -41. -55. -67. -76. -58. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 45. LAT, LON: 34.9 177.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/25/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.17 0.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.55 2.4 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 379.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.48 -1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : -22.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.05 0.2 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 45.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.64 2.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 46.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.24 0.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -19.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.05 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.9% 9.9% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.0% 3.3% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.0% 1.6% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/25/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##