* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/24/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 50 47 42 36 31 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 50 47 42 36 31 25 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 51 49 43 38 33 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 8 5 6 6 5 8 14 19 14 16 24 18 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 0 0 1 1 1 -2 -3 -4 -2 -1 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 282 247 239 252 311 248 261 266 330 338 34 64 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.2 24.9 24.6 24.3 23.9 23.4 23.5 23.7 23.5 22.7 22.4 21.8 21.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 112 110 107 104 99 94 95 97 95 87 84 80 73 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -54.2 -53.9 -54.8 -54.4 -54.4 -54.0 -54.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.3 0.8 0.7 0.4 0.5 0.3 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -1.1 -0.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 45 45 46 47 47 46 46 47 45 44 44 49 N/A N/A N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 27 28 27 27 26 24 24 22 20 16 13 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 40 29 27 32 18 -6 -30 -55 -80 -116 -123 -102 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -22 -5 0 -6 -28 -27 -35 -2 -85 -31 20 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 2 2 2 0 0 -1 0 0 0 0 -1 -3 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1958 2015 2072 2129 2187 2287 2321 2269 2188 2129 2101 1920 1662 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.5 33.9 34.3 34.6 34.8 35.3 36.0 36.7 37.7 38.6 39.3 40.5 42.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 175.2 175.6 176.0 176.5 177.1 178.0 178.7 179.2 179.7 180.4 181.3 182.7 184.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 5 5 6 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 3 CX,CY: -1/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 63.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -8. -12. -23. -34. -44. -52. -60. -69. -76. -84. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 20. 23. 25. 28. 31. 33. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 10. 8. 5. 3. 0. 0. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. 0. 0. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -5. -7. -10. -13. -18. -20. -22. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 0. 0. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -5. -8. -13. -19. -24. -30. -40. -51. -62. -72. 0. 0. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.5 175.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/24/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.18 1.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 454.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 -2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : -8.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.12 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.31 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.8 -15.6 to -90.4 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 16.1% 13.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.4% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 3.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/24/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##