* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/24/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 52 50 43 37 33 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 52 50 43 37 33 30 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 53 52 50 44 39 34 29 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 12 10 5 5 5 4 17 18 30 14 30 18 6 6 20 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 0 1 1 0 3 1 4 -8 0 -2 -2 -3 0 -4 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 283 281 250 233 252 297 269 269 288 323 347 7 300 183 247 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.5 24.2 23.5 23.4 23.8 23.6 23.1 22.7 22.0 21.4 20.3 17.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 114 110 108 106 102 95 94 98 96 90 87 81 76 65 61 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.2 -54.0 -53.8 -53.9 -54.0 -53.7 -53.8 -54.0 -54.2 -53.6 -53.7 -54.0 -54.1 -54.6 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 -0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.3 0.0 -0.3 0.1 -0.5 -0.8 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 6 5 5 5 4 3 3 3 2 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 46 45 44 45 47 46 45 45 43 44 44 46 51 53 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 28 29 29 29 28 27 25 25 24 22 19 15 12 9 7 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 37 43 42 32 33 24 10 -21 -38 -70 -73 -104 -106 -93 -54 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -19 -6 -15 -8 -3 -11 -31 -24 -35 -27 -48 12 -12 15 32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 1 0 2 0 0 2 2 -2 -5 -8 6 8 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1945 1991 2037 2094 2151 2258 2341 2309 2254 2214 2177 2020 1776 1538 1309 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.3 33.7 34.0 34.3 34.6 35.2 35.7 36.3 37.2 37.9 38.4 39.5 41.3 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 175.2 175.5 175.8 176.3 176.8 177.7 178.4 179.2 180.1 180.8 181.4 182.5 184.1 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 4 5 5 4 4 5 5 4 5 9 11 11 11 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 663 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -12. -22. -33. -43. -51. -59. -67. -75. -82. -87. -84. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 20. 24. 26. 30. 33. 33. 31. 26. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 7. 5. 5. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -3. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -17. -19. -20. -20. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 2. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -3. -5. -12. -18. -22. -25. -33. -42. -52. -61. -71. -74. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.3 175.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/24/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 53.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.19 1.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 465.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.38 -2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -10.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 39.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.34 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -37.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.30 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.8% 16.3% 13.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.0% 5.4% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 3.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/24/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##