* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/24/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 54 53 51 45 39 34 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 54 53 51 45 39 34 31 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 55 54 52 50 45 40 35 31 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP N/A N/A SHEAR (KT) 9 10 8 4 6 8 13 21 18 23 21 21 10 17 5 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 0 0 1 0 2 -1 0 -5 0 -1 2 0 -2 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 281 280 284 284 268 300 239 274 277 345 344 30 44 85 159 N/A N/A SST (C) 25.6 25.3 24.9 24.7 24.5 23.9 23.6 23.7 23.8 23.3 22.7 22.4 21.8 21.2 17.5 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 117 114 110 107 105 99 96 97 98 93 87 84 79 75 62 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.1 -54.3 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.6 -54.0 -53.7 -54.4 -53.9 -54.1 -54.2 -54.5 -55.4 N/A N/A 200 MB VXT (C) 0.1 0.0 -0.1 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.5 -0.6 -0.5 -0.3 0.2 -0.4 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 5 5 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 45 45 47 46 45 49 48 48 45 44 44 46 50 54 58 N/A N/A MODEL VTX (KT) 29 28 29 28 29 27 27 25 26 23 20 16 14 12 11 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 52 42 49 53 44 34 12 -9 -32 -57 -70 -102 -103 -98 -64 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -7 -13 -1 -20 -8 -3 -23 -20 -61 -6 -63 -7 -10 36 32 N/A N/A 700-850 TADV 1 2 3 2 3 0 0 0 0 0 -2 -2 -5 -13 -4 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1901 1954 2008 2057 2107 2200 2299 2279 2236 2185 2132 2072 1934 1679 1369 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.2 33.6 34.0 34.4 34.7 35.1 35.9 36.3 37.1 37.9 38.7 39.5 40.4 xx.x xx.x N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 174.7 175.0 175.4 175.8 176.1 177.0 177.8 178.4 179.4 180.1 180.7 181.5 182.6 xxx.x xxx.x N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 5 4 4 5 5 5 6 9 13 14 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):330/ 5 CX,CY: -1/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 709 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 67.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. 0. 0. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -11. -21. -32. -42. -50. -58. -66. -74. -81. -85. -84. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 14. 20. 23. 26. 29. 32. 33. 32. 26. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 1. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -6. 0. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 0. 0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -5. -5. -8. -12. -17. -17. -18. -17. 0. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 0. 0. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -2. -4. -10. -16. -21. -24. -31. -42. -53. -61. -70. -75. 0. 0. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 33.2 174.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/24/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.22 1.7 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 450.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.40 -2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -9.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.11 0.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 43.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.27 0.3 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -37.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.30 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.8% 17.9% 14.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.0% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/24/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##