* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/24/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 53 52 48 41 35 32 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 53 52 48 41 35 32 26 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 54 54 52 51 48 43 39 35 30 25 20 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 9 11 13 9 6 7 4 16 14 25 17 31 17 7 20 37 62 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -1 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 -9 -4 -2 -3 -2 1 0 -14 SHEAR DIR 324 276 280 269 245 257 261 265 257 317 347 5 61 198 204 227 229 SST (C) 25.7 25.6 25.3 25.0 24.8 24.2 23.7 23.6 23.8 23.8 23.0 22.4 21.8 21.3 20.1 16.1 8.5 POT. INT. (KT) 118 116 114 111 108 102 97 96 98 98 90 85 79 74 63 64 65 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.0 -53.8 -53.8 -53.8 -53.6 -53.8 -53.9 -54.2 -54.3 -54.6 -54.4 -55.0 -55.6 -54.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.2 0.7 0.1 0.2 0.3 -0.2 -0.5 -0.6 -0.4 -0.5 0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 5 6 5 5 5 4 4 4 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 46 46 47 47 46 48 47 45 46 44 48 48 50 55 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 30 29 30 29 30 27 26 26 25 22 18 14 12 10 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 53 53 40 50 53 41 28 0 -27 -35 -57 -31 -58 -92 -84 -67 50 200 MB DIV 11 2 -16 -3 -16 1 -8 -43 -13 -49 -7 -64 -35 0 78 49 45 700-850 TADV 5 2 3 4 3 2 3 2 1 2 0 0 0 -1 -1 2 -24 LAND (KM) 1873 1908 1944 1993 2043 2157 2243 2303 2267 2234 2164 2110 1934 1747 1544 1274 991 LAT (DEG N) 32.9 33.2 33.5 33.9 34.2 34.8 35.2 36.0 36.6 37.2 38.2 39.2 40.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 174.6 174.8 175.0 175.4 175.7 176.7 177.5 178.2 178.9 179.6 180.3 181.3 182.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 3 4 5 4 4 4 4 4 5 6 7 8 9 13 20 23 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 734 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -6. -10. -20. -31. -41. -49. -56. -64. -71. -78. -83. -84. -77. -52. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 9. 13. 18. 21. 24. 26. 30. 33. 30. 25. 20. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 10. 12. 12. 10. 9. 6. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 1. -1. -2. -3. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -8. -10. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -6. -7. -9. -13. -17. -20. -20. -20. -20. -19. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -7. -14. -20. -23. -29. -38. -48. -58. -68. -74. -73. -58. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.9 174.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/24/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.24 1.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 446.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.40 -2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 3.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 33.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.45 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -40.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.33 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.9% 18.2% 15.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.3% 6.1% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.6% 3.5% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/24/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##