* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/23/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 50 48 47 45 39 33 30 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 52 50 48 47 45 39 33 30 25 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 53 51 49 48 44 41 36 32 28 23 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 14 12 11 13 9 6 6 9 16 10 14 14 28 15 19 22 29 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -3 0 1 1 0 2 6 1 -2 0 -1 -3 2 -4 -4 -2 SHEAR DIR 335 326 277 270 263 259 290 245 270 310 26 18 44 78 104 151 177 SST (C) 26.0 25.9 25.8 25.5 25.2 24.8 24.2 23.7 23.6 23.7 23.5 22.7 22.3 21.2 20.8 17.8 14.8 POT. INT. (KT) 121 119 118 116 112 108 102 97 96 97 95 87 84 73 70 62 62 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.9 -53.5 -53.9 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.7 -54.1 -53.8 -54.1 -54.0 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 -55.1 -55.7 200 MB VXT (C) -0.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 -0.3 0.6 0.3 0.7 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.5 0.0 -0.2 -0.5 -0.2 -0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 45 46 46 48 46 49 48 48 46 46 45 49 51 52 54 56 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 30 29 30 29 28 27 27 26 23 20 16 13 10 8 5 850 MB ENV VOR 47 48 48 39 41 44 40 17 -2 -24 -57 -61 -68 -93 -149 -136 -64 200 MB DIV 15 19 -1 -17 -7 -9 -4 -28 -3 -21 -10 -70 -46 14 43 61 56 700-850 TADV 5 5 1 3 3 3 4 4 0 0 0 0 0 -3 -7 2 -22 LAND (KM) 1803 1838 1874 1920 1966 2066 2159 2257 2306 2251 2188 2132 2044 1845 1615 1392 1205 LAT (DEG N) 32.3 32.6 32.8 33.2 33.5 34.1 34.6 35.3 36.0 36.8 37.7 38.7 39.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 174.2 174.5 174.7 175.0 175.3 176.1 176.9 177.6 178.3 179.0 179.7 180.7 181.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 3 4 4 4 4 4 5 4 5 5 6 8 10 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 4 CX,CY: -2/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 684 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 21.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 59.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -6. -9. -18. -29. -39. -46. -54. -61. -68. -75. -80. -81. -78. -65. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 9. 14. 18. 20. 22. 24. 27. 29. 29. 25. 19. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 1. 2. 5. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 4. 1. -0. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 4. 2. 1. -0. -2. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -14. -18. -19. -20. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -16. -22. -25. -30. -38. -47. -57. -65. -72. -75. -72. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 32.3 174.2 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/23/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.27 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.7 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.6 34.9 to 7.7 0.56 3.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 445.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.40 -2.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 21.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.47 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 27.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.54 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -29.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.19 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.1% 14.8% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.7% 4.9% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.3% 2.9% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/23/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##