* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/23/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 51 49 47 45 43 39 34 30 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 55 51 49 47 45 43 39 34 30 26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 55 51 49 47 45 41 38 34 31 27 23 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 12 15 11 13 15 8 8 5 17 12 10 10 24 30 23 23 39 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -5 -5 0 0 1 -1 1 6 5 0 0 -4 0 -3 -2 0 -5 SHEAR DIR 316 337 319 278 278 271 276 258 266 289 335 10 28 79 117 163 185 SST (C) 26.1 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.5 25.1 24.6 23.9 23.6 23.7 23.6 22.9 22.4 21.9 21.3 18.8 15.9 POT. INT. (KT) 122 121 121 118 115 112 106 99 96 97 96 89 84 80 75 62 62 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.6 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.0 -54.1 -54.0 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.6 -55.2 -55.2 200 MB VXT (C) 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.2 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 46 47 48 50 53 51 49 47 46 49 50 50 49 49 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 31 31 30 29 29 29 28 27 27 24 21 17 13 10 7 3 850 MB ENV VOR 51 50 49 52 46 52 43 31 14 -8 -37 -60 -43 -81 -106 -52 -9 200 MB DIV 3 11 9 -10 -3 -8 0 -7 -33 -11 -26 -4 -43 -2 4 48 36 700-850 TADV 2 6 6 2 3 7 7 4 4 4 0 0 0 -1 -3 -9 -27 LAND (KM) 1738 1788 1839 1878 1917 2002 2101 2200 2313 2263 2190 2148 2108 1932 1702 1465 1245 LAT (DEG N) 31.9 32.2 32.5 32.8 33.1 33.7 34.4 35.1 35.8 36.6 37.6 38.4 39.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 173.7 174.1 174.5 174.8 175.0 175.6 176.3 177.0 177.9 178.8 179.5 180.4 181.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 5 6 5 6 6 9 11 12 12 HEAT CONTENT 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 4 CX,CY: -3/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 665 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 44.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -9. -17. -27. -37. -45. -52. -59. -66. -73. -77. -78. -77. -66. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 14. 18. 21. 22. 24. 26. 28. 29. 25. 19. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -9. -12. -16. -19. -20. -21. -21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -16. -21. -25. -29. -37. -46. -56. -64. -71. -77. -76. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 31.9 173.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/23/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 64.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.29 2.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 457.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.39 -2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 2.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.51 2.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.40 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -20.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.06 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 7.5% 14.3% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.5% 4.8% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.2% 2.9% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/23/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##