* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/23/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 58 57 56 54 51 47 41 35 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 60 58 57 56 54 51 47 41 35 32 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 60 58 56 55 53 49 45 41 36 33 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 8 13 13 10 12 11 4 6 8 10 3 10 13 19 21 17 23 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -5 -4 0 0 0 0 0 5 0 -2 -3 -3 0 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 288 319 327 315 276 266 236 267 232 279 9 32 27 35 91 138 170 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.7 25.2 24.6 24.0 23.7 23.6 23.5 22.6 22.3 21.2 20.9 20.3 17.1 POT. INT. (KT) 128 126 123 120 117 112 106 100 97 97 96 86 83 72 70 64 61 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -53.2 -53.5 -53.4 -53.1 -53.9 -53.3 -53.9 -53.6 -54.4 -54.1 -54.7 -54.6 -55.1 -55.1 -55.5 -55.5 200 MB VXT (C) 0.4 0.3 -0.1 0.0 0.2 -0.1 0.6 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.2 -0.2 -0.2 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 44 45 46 47 50 49 54 52 51 48 49 47 46 44 46 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 31 31 32 30 31 32 30 28 28 25 23 20 15 12 8 6 850 MB ENV VOR 57 57 54 56 54 46 51 42 20 0 -29 -58 -73 -99 -142 -122 -2 200 MB DIV -4 2 0 -2 -9 -9 0 -3 -15 -14 -40 0 -67 -45 -9 44 50 700-850 TADV 0 3 5 6 3 3 5 4 4 0 2 0 -1 -2 -5 -6 -5 LAND (KM) 1701 1759 1816 1862 1908 1979 2079 2192 2288 2221 2140 2078 2040 1964 1786 1569 1344 LAT (DEG N) 31.8 32.2 32.5 32.9 33.2 33.7 34.4 35.2 35.9 36.8 37.9 38.9 39.6 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 173.3 173.8 174.2 174.5 174.8 175.3 176.0 176.8 177.5 178.2 179.0 179.9 180.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 4 4 4 5 5 5 6 6 5 5 7 9 11 10 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 697 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 51.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -18. -28. -39. -47. -55. -62. -70. -77. -82. -84. -84. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 13. 17. 19. 21. 22. 24. 26. 26. 23. 19. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 11. 8. 5. 3. 1. 0. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 3. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 0. -1. -1. -0. -2. -5. -5. -9. -11. -14. -17. -19. -21. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -6. -9. -13. -19. -25. -28. -38. -48. -58. -67. -73. -80. -80. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 31.8 173.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/23/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.28 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 490.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.35 -2.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : -2.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.15 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.70 3.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 0.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.00 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 41.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.32 0.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -28.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.18 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.5 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.9% 18.5% 15.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 6.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 3.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/23/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##