* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/23/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 62 60 60 57 52 48 43 36 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 62 60 60 57 52 48 43 36 30 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 63 60 58 56 51 46 41 37 32 27 22 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 5 10 14 10 10 12 11 8 4 12 10 11 7 10 20 15 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -3 -3 0 0 1 0 0 0 4 0 -4 -3 -2 -4 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 259 286 317 315 307 276 234 230 301 271 290 10 17 15 70 108 162 SST (C) 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.3 26.0 25.6 24.9 24.3 23.9 23.6 23.5 23.2 22.4 22.1 20.5 20.6 18.0 POT. INT. (KT) 128 127 127 124 121 116 109 103 99 97 96 92 84 81 66 67 61 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.7 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -53.6 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.1 -54.4 -54.6 -54.8 -54.8 -55.3 -55.2 -55.4 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.9 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.0 -0.1 -0.2 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 46 48 48 50 50 50 52 53 55 51 51 51 50 49 49 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 32 32 31 32 31 29 30 30 28 27 26 24 21 19 16 13 11 850 MB ENV VOR 56 53 51 51 55 41 50 39 23 0 -19 -43 -55 -64 -104 -160 -114 200 MB DIV 3 6 -3 -4 -3 -5 -7 5 -10 -40 -11 -36 -1 -48 -21 8 36 700-850 TADV 7 3 5 5 6 6 8 6 3 7 4 1 2 0 -2 -4 -3 LAND (KM) 1622 1679 1736 1794 1851 1922 2015 2128 2213 2226 2140 2078 2044 1997 1889 1668 1417 LAT (DEG N) 31.3 31.7 32.1 32.5 32.9 33.4 34.1 34.9 35.5 36.5 37.7 38.6 39.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 172.7 173.1 173.5 173.9 174.3 174.8 175.4 176.2 176.8 177.5 178.5 179.2 179.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 5 5 5 5 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 4 5 7 9 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):335/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 642 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -18. -29. -39. -48. -57. -64. -72. -79. -84. -86. -86. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 13. 17. 19. 20. 22. 24. 26. 25. 22. 18. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. 6. 4. 2. 1. 0. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 4. 3. 1. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -6. -9. -9. -11. -14. -14. -16. -17. -17. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 2. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -8. -13. -17. -22. -29. -35. -40. -50. -60. -67. -74. -79. -79. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 31.3 172.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/23/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.26 2.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 1.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.61 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 493.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.35 -2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : -0.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.66 2.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.01 0.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 32.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.47 0.5 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -23.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.10 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.4 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.3% 17.3% 14.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.8% 5.8% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.9% 2.9% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/23/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##