* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/22/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 61 59 57 56 53 47 43 39 34 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 65 61 59 57 56 53 47 43 39 34 29 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 65 61 59 57 56 52 49 45 41 37 33 28 22 17 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SHEAR (KT) 8 4 8 15 15 12 8 7 7 10 11 6 14 11 11 13 24 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 -3 -5 -3 0 0 2 0 5 -3 -2 -1 -4 -1 8 6 SHEAR DIR 253 248 297 324 337 288 261 222 288 246 268 30 10 22 58 176 168 SST (C) 26.8 26.7 26.6 26.6 26.4 25.8 25.2 24.6 24.0 23.7 23.6 23.4 22.4 21.8 20.8 21.1 19.5 POT. INT. (KT) 130 128 128 128 125 119 113 107 100 98 97 95 84 78 68 72 60 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.6 -53.5 -53.9 -53.5 -54.1 -53.8 -54.3 -54.1 -54.4 -54.3 -54.8 -54.6 -54.6 200 MB VXT (C) 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.1 -0.1 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.8 0.4 0.7 -0.1 -0.6 -0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 44 46 47 48 49 50 51 54 51 53 50 48 43 44 45 54 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 33 32 32 32 31 30 30 30 29 28 26 22 19 15 12 9 850 MB ENV VOR 62 60 55 57 60 62 52 46 41 23 12 -10 -13 -21 -43 -100 -121 200 MB DIV 16 7 1 6 2 5 -11 -12 7 -24 -8 -41 -32 -33 -65 -38 -2 700-850 TADV 6 6 3 4 6 4 4 6 3 4 0 0 0 3 1 2 -1 LAND (KM) 1573 1627 1681 1742 1803 1896 1973 2086 2193 2295 2197 2118 2047 2001 1877 1700 1506 LAT (DEG N) 30.8 31.2 31.5 31.9 32.3 32.9 33.5 34.4 35.1 35.9 37.1 38.2 39.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 172.5 172.9 173.3 173.8 174.2 174.9 175.4 176.1 176.9 177.7 178.4 179.2 180.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 5 6 5 4 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 6 7 8 9 HEAT CONTENT 3 2 2 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 75 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 729 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 19.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 34.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -4. -7. -16. -27. -37. -46. -54. -62. -69. -76. -81. -83. -83. -80. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 4. 8. 12. 16. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. 25. 22. 18. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 1. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. 2. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -9. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -12. -15. -16. -18. -18. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -7. -7. -6. -4. -2. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -6. -8. -9. -12. -18. -22. -26. -31. -36. -46. -56. -66. -73. -78. -81. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 30.8 172.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/22/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 62.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.28 2.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.65 4.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 514.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.32 -1.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : 6.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.19 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 4.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 19.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.52 2.2 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 2.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.02 0.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 29.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.51 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -22.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.09 -0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.6 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 1.3 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.1% 16.2% 14.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.4% 5.4% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.7% 2.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/22/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##