* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/22/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 72 70 70 69 64 57 50 47 43 37 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 72 70 70 69 64 57 50 47 43 37 27 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 72 70 68 67 63 58 53 48 45 40 34 28 23 18 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 20 8 10 9 7 8 11 11 13 11 12 2 7 20 22 8 2 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -2 -1 2 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 -6 -3 0 -4 -3 -7 SHEAR DIR 200 229 277 281 273 326 300 255 222 220 201 121 10 44 46 91 334 SST (C) 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.5 26.5 26.4 25.7 24.7 24.4 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.2 22.4 20.9 20.2 19.3 POT. INT. (KT) 131 128 127 127 126 125 118 108 105 99 97 95 92 85 69 61 58 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.9 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -53.2 -52.9 -53.3 -53.0 -53.5 -53.4 -54.0 -54.0 -54.6 -54.4 -54.6 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.8 1.0 0.5 0.7 1.0 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 6 7 6 6 5 4 4 3 3 2 2 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 44 44 46 45 47 52 53 55 54 54 49 48 42 37 35 33 36 MODEL VTX (KT) 35 36 34 35 34 34 33 31 31 32 31 28 24 21 17 13 10 850 MB ENV VOR 70 73 65 60 60 57 58 52 53 39 18 0 0 7 -10 -43 -69 200 MB DIV 26 -2 20 21 -7 -1 1 13 6 9 -16 8 -18 -45 -21 -8 -10 700-850 TADV 12 3 3 6 4 4 5 8 9 11 9 1 -1 1 0 1 0 LAND (KM) 1448 1520 1592 1657 1721 1830 1931 2029 2136 2255 2237 2162 2102 2023 1917 1838 1730 LAT (DEG N) 30.2 30.7 31.2 31.7 32.1 32.7 33.2 34.1 34.8 35.7 36.6 37.6 38.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.4 171.9 172.4 172.9 173.3 174.2 175.1 175.6 176.4 177.2 178.1 178.8 179.3 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 7 7 6 5 5 4 5 5 6 6 5 6 7 7 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 2 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):325/ 13 CX,CY: -6/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 766 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 48.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -18. -29. -40. -50. -59. -68. -75. -82. -87. -89. -90. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 6. 11. 15. 18. 20. 22. 24. 25. 24. 21. 17. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 3. 1. 0. -1. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. 6. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -3. -6. -6. -5. -7. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -20. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -5. -5. -6. -11. -18. -25. -28. -32. -38. -48. -60. -70. -79. -87. -92. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 30.2 171.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/22/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.19 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.57 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 603.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 11.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.22 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.78 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 1.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.01 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 34.0 60.4 to 0.0 0.44 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -1.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/22/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##