* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/22/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 75 69 66 65 65 63 58 54 51 47 41 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LAND 75 69 66 65 65 63 58 54 51 47 41 34 27 21 N/A N/A N/A V (KT) LGEM 75 71 67 64 61 57 52 45 40 36 31 26 22 18 N/A N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP SUBT TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SUBT SUBT SHEAR (KT) 34 21 13 10 9 8 7 14 11 10 5 15 18 18 3 4 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -1 0 0 -2 0 1 0 -1 1 4 4 -3 -4 -1 -2 SHEAR DIR 207 211 228 242 252 308 319 285 230 229 266 280 282 281 310 66 81 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 26.8 26.6 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 25.1 24.5 23.9 23.7 23.6 23.2 21.8 21.6 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 134 134 130 128 128 127 125 124 112 106 100 97 97 93 78 75 62 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -51.2 -51.7 -51.9 -52.2 -52.6 -53.0 -53.1 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.1 -54.5 -54.7 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.1 0.4 -0.2 0.1 -0.7 -0.7 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 5 4 3 2 2 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 48 48 48 48 51 53 54 55 53 54 54 54 51 51 50 48 MODEL VTX (KT) 34 36 36 35 35 34 33 33 32 31 30 28 27 25 22 20 18 850 MB ENV VOR 66 63 68 65 53 50 46 21 35 21 20 3 -4 -30 -45 -77 -102 200 MB DIV 47 41 13 23 30 -2 13 0 -5 -9 -6 -19 -17 -39 12 -44 23 700-850 TADV 18 8 7 7 9 4 6 2 8 7 4 3 3 6 4 4 2 LAND (KM) 1266 1331 1397 1473 1549 1679 1787 1880 1973 2094 2221 2257 2187 2068 1932 1861 1860 LAT (DEG N) 28.6 29.3 29.9 30.4 30.9 31.7 32.4 33.0 33.6 34.4 35.3 36.3 37.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 170.4 170.7 171.0 171.5 172.1 173.1 173.9 174.6 175.3 176.2 177.1 177.8 178.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 6 7 7 6 5 4 5 6 6 6 6 7 6 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 7 6 3 1 1 1 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 25/ 9 CX,CY: 4/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 23.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -26. -36. -45. -53. -61. -69. -75. -79. -81. -82. -81. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. 0. 5. 9. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 23. 19. 16. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 10. 8. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 8. 6. 4. 2. -0. -0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -7. -9. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -4. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -9. -10. -10. -12. -17. -21. -24. -28. -34. -41. -48. -54. -61. -67. -69. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 75. LAT, LON: 28.6 170.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/22/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.22 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.4 34.9 to 7.7 0.35 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 562.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 75.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.77 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.60 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 4.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.04 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 51.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.15 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : 0.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.00 0.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/22/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##