* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/21/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 78 77 77 77 74 70 67 63 57 51 44 36 31 23 15 N/A V (KT) LAND 80 78 77 77 77 74 70 67 63 57 51 44 36 31 23 15 N/A V (KT) LGEM 80 80 78 76 73 65 57 49 42 37 33 28 23 19 16 N/A N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 29 31 21 7 7 7 7 12 11 8 7 8 18 31 22 26 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 -2 -3 -2 0 -2 0 1 0 0 0 5 0 -4 -4 -7 -3 SHEAR DIR 217 203 204 219 256 334 309 273 237 226 274 258 286 277 301 300 340 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 26.8 26.6 26.5 26.4 26.3 26.1 24.8 24.4 23.9 23.7 23.5 22.7 22.0 21.4 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 131 129 127 125 124 122 109 104 100 98 96 87 80 73 63 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -51.4 -51.4 -51.6 -52.1 -52.3 -53.2 -52.8 -53.2 -52.8 -53.6 -53.2 -53.7 -54.0 -54.8 -54.2 -54.7 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.4 0.2 -0.2 0.2 -0.3 -0.5 -0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 4 4 4 3 2 2 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 49 49 48 47 48 49 52 53 54 54 55 52 52 49 48 48 52 MODEL VTX (KT) 33 35 37 37 36 35 34 33 31 30 29 27 25 23 21 18 14 850 MB ENV VOR 67 64 68 69 65 56 51 48 37 29 13 1 -10 -25 -41 -49 -88 200 MB DIV 76 46 37 12 13 2 11 10 0 -11 4 -33 -18 -27 -29 -21 -16 700-850 TADV 12 17 9 3 7 5 6 3 3 4 4 2 -1 6 5 3 5 LAND (KM) 1261 1327 1397 1480 1563 1678 1786 1901 2015 2114 2227 2240 2142 2042 1957 1898 1880 LAT (DEG N) 28.1 29.0 29.9 30.5 31.1 31.9 32.5 33.2 34.1 34.8 35.5 36.5 37.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 170.7 170.9 171.0 171.5 172.1 172.9 173.8 174.7 175.4 176.1 177.0 177.9 178.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 7 6 5 5 5 HEAT CONTENT 10 9 3 1 1 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 12 CX,CY: 6/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 526 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 96.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -17. -28. -39. -48. -57. -66. -74. -80. -85. -87. -88. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -3. -3. -1. 3. 8. 13. 16. 18. 20. 22. 23. 24. 20. 16. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 8. 9. 10. 11. 10. 9. 8. 7. 6. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 7. 5. 4. 2. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. -12. -14. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -6. -10. -13. -17. -23. -29. -36. -44. -49. -57. -65. -71. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 28.1 170.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/21/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 51.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.18 1.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 27.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.26 1.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 587.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.24 -1.2 D200 (10**7s-1) : 36.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.34 1.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 3.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 2.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 5.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.05 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.13 0.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -32.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.23 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 8% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 1.1 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.3% 13.7% 11.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.8% 4.6% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.4% 2.3% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/21/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##