* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/21/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 83 81 80 81 78 76 73 71 65 60 53 47 41 34 27 22 V (KT) LAND 85 83 81 80 81 78 76 73 71 65 60 53 47 41 34 27 22 V (KT) LGEM 85 86 85 83 80 72 64 57 50 44 38 33 28 24 21 17 N/A Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 33 30 29 20 9 7 7 8 9 10 11 6 19 19 22 12 11 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 6 -2 -4 -3 0 -2 -2 2 0 0 6 4 3 -3 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 224 215 203 199 229 279 312 277 273 218 246 251 269 269 271 336 74 SST (C) 27.3 27.4 27.2 26.9 26.7 26.6 26.5 26.4 25.2 24.6 24.1 23.7 23.7 23.1 22.4 21.7 20.5 POT. INT. (KT) 137 138 135 132 129 128 126 125 113 107 102 98 98 92 84 77 64 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.4 -51.4 -51.4 -51.7 -52.3 -52.9 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.8 1.5 1.2 0.8 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.9 0.7 1.0 0.3 0.8 -0.3 0.1 0.4 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 1 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 50 50 49 48 47 48 52 52 53 55 56 56 53 52 48 44 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 31 34 36 36 36 35 34 33 33 32 31 29 27 27 24 21 18 850 MB ENV VOR 45 70 65 70 64 59 57 56 39 40 31 22 12 0 -28 -52 -76 200 MB DIV 60 68 31 50 8 3 -6 16 -6 3 2 1 -8 -1 -39 -39 -1 700-850 TADV 11 11 13 9 2 12 4 8 3 7 7 6 2 6 5 2 1 LAND (KM) 1256 1298 1347 1424 1501 1645 1759 1867 1967 2073 2201 2309 2217 2120 2028 1964 1889 LAT (DEG N) 27.0 28.0 29.0 29.7 30.3 31.3 32.1 32.7 33.4 34.1 34.9 35.9 37.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.3 171.2 171.1 171.5 172.0 173.0 173.8 174.7 175.4 176.2 177.2 178.1 178.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 8 7 6 5 5 5 5 6 6 7 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 7 11 10 4 2 2 1 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 30/ 10 CX,CY: 5/ 9 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 578 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 81.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 2.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -16. -28. -39. -48. -58. -67. -75. -81. -85. -87. -89. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -6. -4. 0. 6. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. 21. 18. 14. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 11. 10. 9. 7. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 9. 7. 6. 6. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 3. 4. 5. 4. 3. 3. 3. 1. -0. -2. -4. -5. -7. -9. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -4. -5. -4. -7. -9. -12. -14. -20. -25. -32. -38. -44. -51. -58. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 27.0 171.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/21/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 49.3 30.0 to 148.5 0.16 1.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 2.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.07 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 605.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 -1.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 43.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.38 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 2.4 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.65 2.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 8.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.07 0.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 57.3 60.4 to 0.0 0.05 0.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.48 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 0.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 11.5% 8.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 3.8% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.0% 1.9% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/21/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##