* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/21/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 80 81 84 86 88 88 87 81 75 68 61 54 46 36 27 19 V (KT) LAND 80 80 81 84 86 88 88 87 81 75 68 61 54 46 36 27 19 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 83 83 82 76 71 64 56 50 46 41 36 33 28 23 18 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 31 35 31 30 21 6 8 7 8 10 5 10 8 4 13 29 43 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 5 -2 -5 -1 -2 -2 1 0 3 -1 0 -5 -3 0 -1 SHEAR DIR 228 226 215 201 193 271 300 279 260 232 200 246 224 278 357 6 27 SST (C) 27.8 27.6 27.5 27.3 26.9 26.6 26.3 25.8 25.0 24.6 24.3 23.9 23.9 23.6 22.9 22.6 22.0 POT. INT. (KT) 142 140 139 137 132 128 125 119 111 106 103 99 100 97 90 86 79 200 MB T (C) -50.5 -51.1 -51.3 -51.4 -51.4 -52.1 -52.3 -52.9 -52.5 -53.1 -53.0 -53.3 -53.0 -53.6 -54.0 -54.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 2.1 1.6 1.2 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6 1.1 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 -0.3 -0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 6 7 7 7 7 6 6 5 5 4 3 2 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 49 50 51 49 47 48 49 49 51 52 52 54 52 54 49 49 45 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 31 34 36 36 36 36 35 33 33 32 31 30 30 27 24 20 850 MB ENV VOR 25 43 71 68 69 63 62 55 47 49 56 48 31 17 -6 -4 -19 200 MB DIV 57 45 63 45 43 19 -5 18 1 -7 -20 0 -15 14 -42 -32 -69 700-850 TADV 11 10 9 15 7 4 4 4 2 1 3 6 7 2 0 -1 -6 LAND (KM) 1274 1279 1295 1373 1453 1603 1731 1863 1961 2053 2169 2281 2311 2234 2162 2095 1978 LAT (DEG N) 26.1 27.1 28.1 29.0 29.8 30.9 31.8 32.4 33.2 33.8 34.3 35.1 36.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.9 171.5 171.1 171.5 171.8 172.8 173.7 174.9 175.5 176.2 177.3 178.1 178.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 9 9 8 7 5 5 5 5 5 5 6 6 6 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 16 8 13 11 3 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 20/ 8 CX,CY: 3/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 631 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 97.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -13. -24. -34. -43. -53. -61. -68. -74. -78. -80. -81. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -6. -5. -0. 6. 11. 13. 16. 17. 19. 20. 19. 16. 13. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. 11. 10. 7. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 5. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 9. 8. 7. 5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 4. 7. 7. 7. 9. 10. 8. 7. 6. 5. 3. 2. -1. -3. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. 1. 4. 6. 8. 8. 7. 1. -5. -12. -19. -26. -34. -44. -53. -61. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 26.1 171.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/21/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.24 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.0 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 561.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 50.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.41 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.85 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 11.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.10 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 52.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.14 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -56.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.55 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 1.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 3.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.5% 3.6% 1.0% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/21/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##