* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/21/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 79 81 83 86 89 92 90 82 74 66 59 51 45 38 30 21 V (KT) LAND 80 79 81 83 86 89 92 90 82 74 66 59 51 45 38 30 21 V (KT) LGEM 80 81 83 85 86 82 77 71 63 54 48 43 39 35 32 28 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 23 32 38 31 30 10 7 6 11 13 10 6 9 14 11 22 36 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 3 -2 -5 1 -5 -1 1 -2 1 1 2 -4 1 0 SHEAR DIR 242 228 229 219 205 213 244 317 318 272 232 283 274 270 294 346 15 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.4 26.8 26.7 26.1 25.3 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.9 23.9 23.4 22.7 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 141 142 141 140 137 130 129 123 114 108 103 99 99 99 95 88 80 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.5 -51.0 -51.5 -51.6 -51.8 -52.1 -52.9 -53.2 -53.2 -53.3 -53.6 -53.9 -53.9 -54.2 -54.7 -54.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.3 1.9 1.4 1.0 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.4 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.0 0.0 -0.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 6 6 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 4 3 2 1 0 700-500 MB RH 47 51 52 51 50 48 48 50 48 48 51 54 54 53 53 49 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 28 32 35 37 37 38 36 34 32 30 29 27 27 26 23 18 850 MB ENV VOR 17 27 44 67 74 71 64 60 51 57 56 38 27 9 -3 -14 2 200 MB DIV 64 66 44 71 41 9 22 -11 13 -2 1 -10 9 -12 -11 -36 -80 700-850 TADV 11 12 13 9 14 3 12 0 4 0 5 6 7 4 6 0 1 LAND (KM) 1294 1290 1293 1329 1374 1541 1663 1813 1944 2058 2176 2280 2345 2269 2184 2076 1978 LAT (DEG N) 25.2 26.0 26.8 27.9 28.9 30.3 31.1 32.1 32.7 33.4 34.3 35.2 35.8 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 172.4 172.1 171.8 171.7 171.5 172.5 173.4 174.5 175.7 176.6 177.4 178.0 178.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 11 9 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 5 5 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 16 16 10 11 11 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):355/ 8 CX,CY: 0/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 681 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 8.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 99.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 21.2 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -11. -22. -31. -40. -49. -57. -65. -71. -75. -77. -78. -76. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -5. -6. -6. -2. 4. 10. 12. 15. 17. 18. 19. 18. 15. 12. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 6. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 5. 8. 9. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 9. 8. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 3. 5. 8. 7. 10. 11. 8. 6. 3. 1. -1. -1. -1. -4. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. RI POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. 1. 3. 6. 9. 12. 10. 2. -6. -14. -21. -29. -35. -42. -50. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 25.2 172.4 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/21/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.26 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 40.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 550.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.28 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 57.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.44 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 8.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.82 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.13 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 48.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.20 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -56.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.55 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 5.0% 6.0% 4.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.5% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/21/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##