* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/20/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 80 75 72 73 74 79 84 89 85 78 72 65 58 51 44 34 28 V (KT) LAND 80 75 72 73 74 79 84 89 85 78 72 65 58 51 44 34 28 V (KT) LGEM 80 76 74 75 77 77 74 70 65 57 51 45 41 37 32 27 22 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 21 21 31 39 33 20 8 4 8 15 9 7 14 14 12 4 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 5 4 -1 2 -5 -3 -1 0 0 2 4 3 6 -6 1 0 SHEAR DIR 248 242 227 227 217 195 286 259 327 273 249 262 286 249 268 280 282 SST (C) 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.6 27.0 26.8 26.2 25.5 24.7 24.2 23.9 23.9 23.3 22.6 21.5 20.8 POT. INT. (KT) 141 141 142 140 140 133 130 124 117 108 103 100 100 94 87 74 67 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -51.0 -51.4 -51.7 -52.5 -52.5 -53.4 -53.0 -53.7 -53.7 -54.4 -54.0 -54.7 -54.8 -55.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.8 1.2 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.6 -0.1 0.2 0.6 TH_E DEV (C) 7 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 48 52 53 51 48 49 49 52 52 52 56 61 60 60 59 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 27 31 33 36 35 35 35 33 32 30 29 28 27 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 18 16 26 47 67 70 61 64 51 48 40 33 9 -4 -29 -38 -15 200 MB DIV 33 65 65 39 69 50 19 -1 3 -3 12 -5 -7 -31 -5 1 44 700-850 TADV 10 12 11 12 8 9 4 5 3 8 4 8 11 8 4 1 13 LAND (KM) 1269 1272 1280 1301 1332 1471 1628 1776 1905 2049 2184 2316 2274 2160 2032 1921 1828 LAT (DEG N) 24.6 25.3 26.0 27.0 28.0 29.7 30.8 31.9 32.7 33.5 34.3 35.3 36.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 172.3 172.2 172.0 171.8 171.6 172.1 173.2 174.2 175.2 176.4 177.5 178.4 178.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 7 9 10 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 8 8 5 4 HEAT CONTENT 17 16 16 7 12 4 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):338/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 95 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 698 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 94.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 12.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -3. -10. -20. -30. -38. -47. -55. -63. -69. -73. -75. -77. -77. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -3. 3. 9. 11. 14. 16. 18. 19. 18. 15. 12. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 9. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -0. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 10. 8. 6. 3. 2. 1. -0. -2. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -5. -8. -7. -6. -1. 4. 9. 5. -2. -8. -15. -22. -29. -36. -46. -52. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 80. LAT, LON: 24.6 172.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/20/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 60.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.26 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 39.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 558.8 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 54.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.43 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 80.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.70 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.14 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 36.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.39 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -52.4 -15.6 to -90.4 0.49 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 6% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 9% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.6% 9.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.9% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 6.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 4.5% 1.5% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/20/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=2 NFAIL=5 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##