* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/20/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 79 74 73 72 76 83 87 88 80 74 67 60 54 50 45 39 V (KT) LAND 85 79 74 73 72 76 83 87 88 80 74 67 60 54 50 45 39 V (KT) LGEM 85 80 77 76 76 76 72 67 61 56 50 44 39 37 34 32 28 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP EXTP SHEAR (KT) 22 21 21 31 36 27 5 12 7 6 12 7 9 12 22 21 27 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 5 4 1 1 -2 -3 -2 -1 0 0 0 -1 -1 -1 2 SHEAR DIR 237 252 251 226 225 200 227 296 256 290 285 240 264 267 276 267 321 SST (C) 27.7 27.7 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.3 26.7 26.5 25.9 25.1 24.6 24.0 23.8 23.6 22.9 22.3 20.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 141 142 140 137 130 127 121 112 107 101 99 97 90 84 64 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.4 -50.9 -51.5 -51.7 -52.4 -52.9 -53.3 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.9 -54.0 -54.7 -55.1 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.2 1.5 1.0 0.7 0.1 0.4 0.1 1.1 0.3 1.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 7 8 7 6 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 45 47 48 53 55 52 51 52 55 55 55 55 57 58 60 58 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 27 27 28 29 35 37 36 35 33 32 30 29 28 28 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 23 22 19 26 46 71 65 52 46 28 26 26 -2 -18 -20 -20 -57 200 MB DIV 11 32 57 60 45 59 -5 7 -1 28 -7 1 -10 -5 5 -34 -38 700-850 TADV 11 10 14 11 11 16 4 8 4 6 1 4 1 3 1 2 2 LAND (KM) 1224 1248 1277 1271 1274 1364 1538 1696 1832 1962 2091 2231 2300 2194 2085 1951 1790 LAT (DEG N) 23.8 24.6 25.3 26.2 27.0 29.0 30.5 31.5 32.4 33.1 33.8 34.8 36.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 172.0 172.1 172.2 171.9 171.5 171.3 172.3 173.5 174.5 175.6 176.7 177.7 178.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 16 16 16 8 11 2 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):340/ 8 CX,CY: -2/ 8 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.2 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -21. -31. -39. -48. -57. -64. -71. -75. -77. -79. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -7. -5. 1. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 17. 17. 14. 11. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 8. 7. PERSISTENCE -4. -6. -6. -6. -4. -3. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. 9. 8. 7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 1. 1. 3. 4. 8. 11. 14. 14. 11. 8. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -11. -12. -13. -9. -2. 2. 3. -5. -11. -18. -25. -31. -35. -40. -46. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 23.8 172.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/20/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 55.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.22 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -15.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.11 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 36.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.00 0.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 605.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.22 9999.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 41.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.36 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.2 37.8 to 2.1 0.58 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 15.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.14 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 21.9 60.4 to 0.0 0.64 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.36 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.1% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.7% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.8% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/20/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##