* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/20/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 95 87 83 79 76 76 83 89 90 84 78 71 64 57 53 47 41 V (KT) LAND 95 87 83 79 76 76 83 89 90 84 78 71 64 57 53 47 41 V (KT) LGEM 95 90 87 84 83 84 82 76 69 62 55 48 44 40 37 33 27 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 22 22 21 23 32 35 20 8 6 5 11 7 7 8 9 11 18 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 -1 4 3 0 -5 -1 1 -2 -3 1 -1 -1 2 0 0 SHEAR DIR 217 233 245 249 225 213 197 285 256 298 273 236 224 259 257 283 316 SST (C) 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.9 27.6 27.0 26.6 26.0 25.1 24.5 24.0 23.9 23.9 23.0 22.4 20.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 141 141 142 143 140 133 129 122 113 106 101 100 101 91 85 66 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.7 -50.6 -50.5 -50.3 -51.3 -51.7 -52.5 -52.5 -53.5 -53.4 -53.9 -53.4 -54.2 -54.1 -54.8 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.3 0.8 0.8 1.3 1.2 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.8 1.1 0.6 0.8 -0.1 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 7 8 6 7 6 6 5 5 4 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 43 46 48 49 53 53 51 51 53 56 55 58 57 60 59 60 55 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 24 27 27 27 32 36 35 34 33 32 30 30 28 27 25 22 850 MB ENV VOR 28 22 23 16 30 71 68 57 52 40 31 18 6 -7 -28 -49 -75 200 MB DIV 30 12 37 57 57 65 32 6 -9 12 3 8 -7 15 -2 5 -30 700-850 TADV 11 12 12 13 11 10 12 5 3 5 5 3 8 5 5 4 8 LAND (KM) 1195 1224 1255 1271 1293 1353 1479 1663 1800 1949 2091 2231 2348 2232 2083 1969 1880 LAT (DEG N) 23.1 23.8 24.4 25.3 26.1 27.9 29.7 31.1 31.9 32.9 33.8 34.8 35.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.8 172.0 172.2 172.2 172.1 171.9 172.2 173.4 174.5 175.6 176.7 177.7 178.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 8 9 9 9 9 8 6 7 6 6 6 8 8 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 14 14 16 16 16 10 4 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):320/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 666 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 16.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 66.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -13. -23. -34. -44. -54. -63. -71. -78. -82. -84. -86. -87. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -4. 3. 7. 10. 12. 14. 16. 15. 12. 10. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 9. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 9. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 2. 2. 2. 6. 11. 13. 13. 11. 9. 7. 5. 3. 2. 0. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -12. -16. -19. -19. -12. -6. -5. -10. -17. -24. -31. -38. -42. -48. -54. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 95. LAT, LON: 23.1 171.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/20/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 46.7 30.0 to 148.5 0.14 0.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 33.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.06 0.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 720.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.09 -0.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : 38.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.35 1.3 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 95.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.50 1.8 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 16.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.59 1.8 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 17.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.16 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.70 0.6 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.40 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.7 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 7% is 0.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 6% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 3% is 1.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.5% 8.4% 7.4% 6.3% 3.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 2.8% 2.5% 2.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 1.4% 1.2% 1.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/20/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##