* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/20/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 92 86 83 79 78 84 91 92 88 81 75 69 64 59 54 50 V (KT) LAND 100 92 86 83 79 78 84 91 92 88 81 75 69 64 59 54 50 V (KT) LGEM 100 95 91 88 87 86 85 81 75 67 60 53 49 46 42 37 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 21 22 22 23 33 26 8 10 8 7 10 10 13 9 12 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 0 1 2 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 0 2 1 1 0 2 SHEAR DIR 216 216 230 235 236 221 203 229 301 273 278 266 238 242 230 252 254 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.6 27.5 26.7 26.4 25.4 24.9 24.3 24.0 24.1 23.3 22.8 21.9 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 141 142 140 139 130 127 116 110 104 101 103 95 89 79 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.6 -50.5 -50.5 -50.2 -50.6 -51.3 -51.7 -52.5 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -53.0 -53.3 -54.0 -54.3 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.3 1.5 1.6 0.8 1.0 2.1 1.4 1.0 0.5 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 48 50 51 56 53 52 53 55 55 57 58 58 59 60 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 27 26 26 29 28 32 36 37 36 35 33 31 30 30 30 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 36 27 23 21 19 52 64 56 51 42 31 22 10 0 2 -11 -22 200 MB DIV 53 18 -2 25 57 54 62 -3 1 0 29 -3 8 2 7 18 -39 700-850 TADV 12 11 11 10 13 11 14 4 7 2 8 4 9 7 15 6 12 LAND (KM) 1140 1180 1223 1242 1267 1311 1402 1557 1729 1892 2036 2170 2275 2316 2166 2041 1931 LAT (DEG N) 22.4 23.1 23.7 24.5 25.3 27.0 28.8 30.3 31.4 32.5 33.3 34.2 34.9 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 171.3 171.7 172.0 172.0 172.1 171.9 171.9 172.7 174.0 175.2 176.4 177.4 178.2 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 7 7 8 8 9 9 8 8 7 6 5 6 8 9 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 19 15 13 17 16 7 12 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):315/ 9 CX,CY: -5/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 110 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 668 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -6. -13. -24. -35. -45. -55. -64. -72. -79. -83. -85. -88. -88. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -6. 1. 5. 9. 11. 13. 14. 14. 11. 9. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 9. 8. 7. 7. PERSISTENCE -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 13. 12. 13. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. 1. 1. 4. 9. 12. 12. 11. 7. 5. 3. 3. 2. 1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -3. -4. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 2. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -8. -14. -17. -21. -22. -16. -9. -8. -12. -19. -25. -31. -36. -41. -46. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 22.4 171.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/20/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 42.1 30.0 to 148.5 0.10 0.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 0.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 29.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.18 0.9 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 770.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.03 -0.1 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 1.1 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 1.6 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 1.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 0.5 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.88 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.5 -15.6 to -90.4 0.59 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 5% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 10% is 0.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 8% is 0.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 5.4% 9.8% 8.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 1.8% 3.3% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.9% 1.6% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/20/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##