* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/19/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 104 97 92 89 84 88 95 100 94 86 79 71 65 60 57 51 V (KT) LAND 110 104 97 92 89 84 88 95 100 94 86 79 71 65 60 57 51 V (KT) LGEM 110 105 101 97 93 91 90 86 77 68 60 52 45 42 39 36 32 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 19 20 22 21 27 29 14 8 4 7 17 16 19 15 16 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 3 2 0 0 -3 2 -1 -3 1 0 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 231 217 215 223 226 219 207 190 266 292 310 295 274 256 260 283 287 SST (C) 28.3 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.9 27.8 27.6 26.8 26.3 25.6 25.1 24.5 24.0 24.1 23.3 22.8 20.7 POT. INT. (KT) 147 143 142 141 142 142 140 131 126 117 113 107 102 102 94 90 69 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.5 -50.7 -50.5 -50.1 -51.1 -51.2 -52.3 -52.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.4 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 -54.5 200 MB VXT (C) 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.6 0.9 1.9 1.6 1.3 0.5 0.4 0.7 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.8 0.9 0.9 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 5 5 5 5 4 3 1 0 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 46 48 50 56 56 53 53 54 60 60 60 61 63 61 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 25 25 25 26 28 30 35 36 37 35 33 32 30 29 29 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 33 33 27 22 20 38 67 56 57 46 24 14 1 -3 -10 -26 -47 200 MB DIV 49 47 17 5 37 51 62 30 -5 -1 26 9 8 15 0 -6 32 700-850 TADV 9 12 10 11 9 10 11 9 6 5 5 7 0 8 6 10 7 LAND (KM) 1078 1136 1199 1228 1262 1291 1340 1482 1689 1840 1955 2113 2338 2280 2166 2050 1880 LAT (DEG N) 21.9 22.7 23.4 24.1 24.7 26.3 28.3 30.0 31.5 32.4 33.0 33.9 35.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 170.7 171.3 171.8 172.0 172.2 172.0 171.5 172.0 173.4 174.6 175.6 176.9 178.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 7 7 9 9 9 8 6 6 9 9 7 7 9 11 HEAT CONTENT 25 17 14 15 18 15 12 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 74.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -3. -5. -8. -16. -28. -40. -50. -61. -71. -80. -86. -91. -94. -96. -97. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -8. -1. 4. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 11. 9. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. PERSISTENCE -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 7. 10. 13. 14. 14. 13. 13. 13. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 10. 14. 17. 14. 10. 9. 5. 4. 3. 3. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -6. -13. -18. -21. -26. -22. -15. -10. -16. -24. -31. -39. -45. -50. -53. -59. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.9 170.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/19/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 33.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.03 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 28.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.23 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 866.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 31.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.69 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 20.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 3.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.94 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -59.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.58 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 7% is 1.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 6.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/19/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##