* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/19/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 110 107 103 98 92 90 90 98 100 97 91 82 75 67 63 61 60 V (KT) LAND 110 107 103 98 92 90 90 98 100 97 91 82 75 67 63 61 60 V (KT) LGEM 110 110 107 104 101 97 96 92 83 73 65 57 50 45 41 39 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 19 18 15 18 20 16 30 24 7 3 6 9 13 9 10 11 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 2 3 2 -2 -3 -2 -4 -5 -4 -1 0 0 3 SHEAR DIR 245 240 231 217 221 224 215 197 178 315 330 327 311 285 285 276 262 SST (C) 28.2 28.3 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.4 26.5 26.3 25.6 25.0 24.3 23.7 23.9 23.5 22.5 POT. INT. (KT) 145 147 146 142 141 141 142 138 128 125 118 112 105 98 100 96 86 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -50.5 -50.6 -50.7 -50.3 -50.5 -50.8 -51.5 -52.2 -52.7 -52.8 -52.6 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.5 1.9 1.6 1.5 1.7 1.3 2.3 1.5 1.0 0.6 1.0 0.5 1.0 0.6 0.8 0.6 0.3 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 0 700-500 MB RH 46 46 48 48 49 53 56 55 54 57 59 59 61 62 61 62 60 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 26 25 25 31 32 37 36 36 35 33 32 30 29 28 28 850 MB ENV VOR 44 31 33 28 19 20 52 65 61 55 46 12 -2 0 -9 -1 -11 200 MB DIV 13 42 50 13 0 76 62 47 4 3 -2 13 0 6 -2 47 19 700-850 TADV 4 7 10 10 11 11 12 12 2 3 3 5 5 9 8 13 18 LAND (KM) 1003 1059 1119 1168 1221 1249 1256 1341 1528 1694 1849 1992 2144 2292 2253 2144 1992 LAT (DEG N) 21.0 21.6 22.2 22.9 23.6 25.0 26.8 28.9 30.7 31.7 32.3 33.1 34.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 169.9 170.5 171.1 171.5 172.0 172.0 171.4 171.1 172.0 173.3 174.8 176.0 176.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 7 8 8 8 7 8 10 10 9 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 32 29 22 16 13 17 11 11 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 100 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 632 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 70.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.3 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -7. -15. -26. -37. -47. -57. -67. -75. -81. -86. -89. -91. -92. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -10. -10. -7. -2. 2. 6. 9. 11. 13. 12. 10. 9. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 8. 11. 14. 15. 15. 16. 15. 16. 16. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 2. 6. 9. 17. 18. 18. 15. 11. 9. 7. 5. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -3. -4. -5. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 6. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -7. -12. -17. -20. -20. -12. -10. -13. -19. -28. -35. -43. -47. -49. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 110. LAT, LON: 21.0 169.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/19/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 34.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.04 9999.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 864.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 23.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.28 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 110.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.30 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.61 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 4.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.93 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -51.3 -15.6 to -90.4 0.48 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/19/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##