* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/19/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 115 117 115 110 105 94 92 96 102 98 93 82 73 64 57 53 52 V (KT) LAND 115 117 115 110 105 94 92 96 102 98 93 82 73 64 57 53 52 V (KT) LGEM 115 120 119 115 110 102 99 97 91 80 70 62 55 48 43 39 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 20 20 15 14 17 17 18 26 18 7 2 10 14 12 14 13 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 3 1 1 1 4 1 0 -6 1 -1 -4 -3 -1 0 0 SHEAR DIR 246 250 231 215 216 234 224 214 179 267 281 319 314 318 286 296 306 SST (C) 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.7 27.6 27.1 26.3 26.0 25.2 24.8 24.3 24.0 23.4 22.4 POT. INT. (KT) 142 146 145 143 142 142 140 140 134 126 122 113 109 104 101 95 85 200 MB T (C) -50.6 -50.7 -50.9 -50.7 -50.5 -50.8 -50.3 -51.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.1 -53.0 -52.7 -53.2 -53.0 -53.6 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 1.6 1.8 1.3 1.4 0.8 1.6 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 5 3 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 45 46 46 48 47 52 56 58 55 56 58 63 66 68 66 67 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 24 25 25 27 28 31 36 39 37 36 33 32 30 29 28 27 850 MB ENV VOR 56 41 33 33 28 22 36 66 70 66 51 23 23 10 3 -6 -17 200 MB DIV 10 18 47 63 16 47 72 83 54 28 7 28 2 13 -4 7 28 700-850 TADV 0 6 8 10 12 10 8 13 12 9 5 9 6 2 7 3 10 LAND (KM) 946 1005 1068 1120 1175 1237 1233 1259 1403 1563 1714 1850 1971 2094 2170 2068 1938 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 21.3 21.8 22.5 23.1 24.5 26.0 27.6 29.5 31.1 32.2 33.3 34.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 169.3 170.0 170.6 171.1 171.6 172.0 171.5 171.0 171.4 172.1 173.1 173.9 174.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 7 7 8 9 9 8 7 6 6 6 6 7 7 HEAT CONTENT 20 28 25 18 15 18 18 13 7 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 85 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 79.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 0.1 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -2. -3. -5. -8. -17. -28. -40. -49. -60. -69. -78. -84. -89. -92. -95. -96. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -8. -4. 1. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 9. 8. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 8. 10. 10. 8. 4. 0. -4. -6. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 13. 13. 13. 12. 12. 12. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 8. 16. 23. 20. 17. 13. 10. 8. 6. 4. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. -0. -5. -10. -21. -23. -19. -13. -17. -22. -33. -42. -51. -58. -62. -63. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 115. LAT, LON: 20.7 169.3 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/19/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 28.8 30.0 to 148.5 0.00 0.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 9999.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 9999.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 931.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.00 0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 30.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.31 9999.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 115.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.23 9999.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.5 37.8 to 2.1 0.71 9999.0 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 9999.0 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 5.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.91 9999.0 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -61.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 9999.0 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 0.5% 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/19/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##