* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/19/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 100 104 104 102 97 88 86 92 98 97 94 87 77 66 59 53 50 V (KT) LAND 100 104 104 102 97 88 86 92 98 97 94 87 77 66 59 53 50 V (KT) LGEM 100 107 108 107 104 96 92 92 90 81 73 66 58 51 44 37 31 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 16 20 22 17 11 21 19 26 24 6 6 5 9 9 2 4 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -1 0 2 7 1 1 5 -4 -1 -3 -1 -3 0 -1 0 -3 SHEAR DIR 251 249 252 241 213 225 229 217 193 207 261 303 313 314 15 53 193 SST (C) 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.2 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.5 26.0 25.5 25.0 24.5 24.1 23.7 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 146 146 143 141 141 141 135 128 122 117 111 106 102 98 78 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.6 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.0 -50.8 -51.1 -52.0 -52.3 -52.7 -52.8 -52.9 -52.9 -53.1 -53.4 -53.7 200 MB VXT (C) 0.7 0.9 1.6 1.7 1.1 1.5 1.1 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 8 8 8 8 7 6 6 6 6 6 5 4 3 2 1 700-500 MB RH 44 46 47 47 49 50 56 59 58 55 56 60 63 64 63 63 63 MODEL VTX (KT) 23 21 22 24 23 24 28 33 36 37 36 36 34 31 30 27 27 850 MB ENV VOR 56 54 44 33 28 18 21 59 77 74 65 53 39 25 22 10 18 200 MB DIV 15 12 16 42 53 12 75 44 74 1 29 35 38 7 18 -3 31 700-850 TADV 4 0 5 9 10 17 14 13 17 1 6 5 7 7 11 6 8 LAND (KM) 868 937 1010 1073 1141 1216 1228 1243 1323 1461 1634 1785 1908 2023 2152 2100 1937 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.9 21.3 22.0 22.6 23.9 25.3 27.1 29.0 30.5 31.9 33.1 34.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 168.5 169.3 170.0 170.7 171.3 171.9 171.7 171.1 170.8 171.3 172.3 173.2 173.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 9 9 8 7 8 10 9 8 8 7 6 6 6 7 8 HEAT CONTENT 20 20 28 24 17 15 17 10 9 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 70 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 633 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 7.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 91.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 1.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -2. -4. -11. -20. -29. -37. -46. -54. -61. -67. -72. -74. -77. -78. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -3. -6. -8. -8. -8. -6. -2. 1. 5. 8. 9. 11. 10. 9. 8. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 6. 5. 5. 3. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 5. 2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -4. -3. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 6. 9. 11. 11. 12. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -1. -0. 1. 0. 1. 5. 13. 18. 19. 18. 16. 12. 8. 6. 4. 2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -2. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 4. 4. 2. -3. -12. -14. -8. -2. -3. -6. -13. -23. -34. -41. -47. -50. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 100. LAT, LON: 20.5 168.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/19/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 44.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.12 1.1 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 30.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.79 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 26.7 34.9 to 7.7 0.30 2.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 796.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.01 -0.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 27.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.30 1.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 100.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.43 2.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 7.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.84 4.1 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.88 1.2 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -66.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.68 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 35% is 5.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 34.6% 22.2% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.2% 0.4% 1.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 11.9% 7.5% 6.9% 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 3.0% 2.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 11.4% 5.2% 4.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/19/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=6 NFAIL=1 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##