* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/18/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 85 88 88 87 85 82 82 84 96 101 97 88 79 72 65 60 54 V (KT) LAND 85 88 88 87 85 82 82 84 96 101 97 88 79 72 65 60 54 V (KT) LGEM 85 90 93 93 92 90 87 87 88 86 77 67 58 51 46 41 35 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 17 21 21 16 17 16 27 27 25 6 7 9 6 6 9 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -2 1 2 1 6 3 2 0 -7 -3 -2 -2 -2 -3 -1 SHEAR DIR 266 255 251 258 238 226 246 229 220 202 183 316 290 280 268 276 285 SST (C) 28.1 27.9 27.9 28.2 28.3 27.9 27.9 27.8 27.6 26.8 26.0 25.6 25.0 24.4 23.9 22.7 21.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 142 146 147 142 142 142 140 132 123 118 112 106 101 87 75 200 MB T (C) -51.1 -50.8 -50.7 -50.8 -50.9 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.6 -51.6 -52.4 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -53.3 -53.2 -53.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.5 1.5 1.1 0.9 1.8 1.6 1.6 0.0 0.7 0.4 0.9 0.3 0.7 0.7 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 9 8 8 8 7 7 5 6 5 5 5 4 2 2 1 700-500 MB RH 45 45 45 48 48 49 56 61 60 56 54 52 56 59 63 63 62 MODEL VTX (KT) 22 23 21 23 23 24 27 28 35 38 37 35 33 32 30 29 26 850 MB ENV VOR 59 54 53 44 36 22 19 32 78 76 75 68 49 24 1 -5 -2 200 MB DIV 13 18 6 7 40 28 48 69 83 72 11 11 33 8 19 6 -11 700-850 TADV 2 5 0 6 8 11 16 11 16 19 5 1 7 5 9 5 2 LAND (KM) 791 868 946 1010 1079 1184 1235 1239 1275 1397 1576 1751 1900 2053 2090 1969 1910 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.5 20.7 21.3 21.8 23.0 24.4 25.9 27.9 30.0 31.9 33.3 34.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 167.7 168.5 169.3 170.0 170.7 171.7 172.0 171.6 171.0 170.9 171.5 172.5 173.8 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 9 8 7 8 9 11 10 9 7 7 7 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 23 20 20 28 26 14 17 17 13 2 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 637 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.7 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 84.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL -0. 0. 0. -1. -5. -13. -19. -25. -31. -38. -44. -50. -55. -57. -60. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -2. -4. -6. -6. -6. -3. -0. 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 8. 7. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 5. 7. 7. 6. 4. 2. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 9. 12. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 13. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. -0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 18. 22. 20. 16. 11. 10. 7. 5. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 3. 2. -0. -3. -3. -1. 11. 16. 12. 3. -6. -13. -20. -25. -31. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 85. LAT, LON: 20.3 167.7 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/18/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 59.4 30.0 to 148.5 0.25 2.3 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 20.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.64 5.2 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 25.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.33 2.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 691.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.12 -0.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 16.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.24 1.4 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 85.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.63 3.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.7 37.8 to 2.1 0.73 3.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 26.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.24 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 9.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.84 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -62.1 -15.6 to -90.4 0.62 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 27% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.3 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.5% 21.9% 19.9% 17.9% 14.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 1.0% 0.6% 0.7% 0.6% 0.8% 1.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 7.7% 6.8% 6.2% 4.9% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 30.0% 26.0% 11.0% 6.0% 4.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 19.7% 16.8% 8.9% 6.1% 4.4% 0.6% 0.2% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/18/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##