* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/18/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 70 72 74 73 75 76 76 80 84 95 95 89 83 75 67 60 56 V (KT) LAND 70 72 74 73 75 76 76 80 84 95 95 89 83 75 67 60 56 V (KT) LGEM 70 73 75 76 77 79 81 80 81 83 79 72 67 62 57 50 43 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 18 18 17 19 20 12 16 20 34 34 31 4 13 8 5 3 3 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -6 -3 -1 1 5 5 4 2 -5 -2 -6 -3 0 0 0 SHEAR DIR 271 271 260 253 256 237 255 249 237 222 209 208 279 265 299 325 307 SST (C) 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.8 28.1 28.0 27.8 27.8 27.7 27.2 26.3 25.7 25.3 24.8 24.2 23.7 21.7 POT. INT. (KT) 144 145 143 141 144 143 141 141 141 137 126 119 115 110 104 98 78 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -50.8 -50.7 -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -50.7 -51.0 -51.5 -51.9 -52.6 -53.0 -53.5 -53.8 -54.0 -54.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.0 0.9 0.8 1.0 1.5 0.9 1.2 1.3 1.8 1.7 1.3 0.4 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 8 7 8 8 8 8 8 7 6 5 5 5 6 6 4 4 2 700-500 MB RH 42 46 46 45 47 48 51 60 63 60 58 55 52 55 59 55 50 MODEL VTX (KT) 21 22 22 21 23 24 25 27 29 36 36 35 34 32 30 28 26 850 MB ENV VOR 53 51 49 45 41 22 7 14 55 110 101 103 92 77 56 48 48 200 MB DIV -8 10 13 -10 -2 43 -4 70 84 95 30 9 26 36 42 16 -8 700-850 TADV 0 1 5 0 6 11 16 17 13 23 24 5 3 8 4 5 2 LAND (KM) 677 766 856 920 987 1120 1224 1232 1233 1301 1460 1638 1793 1932 2065 1988 1917 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.5 20.6 21.1 21.5 22.5 23.8 25.1 26.7 28.9 31.2 32.8 33.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 166.6 167.5 168.4 169.1 169.8 171.1 172.0 171.8 171.2 170.6 170.6 171.4 172.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 10 12 10 8 6 7 8 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 27 22 20 19 26 18 14 17 13 8 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 638 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 12.0 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 71.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 14.5 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -2. -7. -12. -15. -20. -25. -30. -35. -39. -41. -42. -43. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. 0. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 10. 8. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 5. 8. 11. 13. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 2. 3. 4. 8. 11. 21. 20. 17. 14. 11. 8. 6. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 3. 5. 6. 6. 10. 14. 25. 25. 19. 13. 5. -3. -9. -14. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 70. LAT, LON: 20.4 166.6 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/18/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 73.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.37 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 23.2 34.9 to 7.7 0.43 3.3 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 569.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.26 -1.8 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 70.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.83 4.9 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 12.0 37.8 to 2.1 0.72 3.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 1.1 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 8.6 60.4 to 0.0 0.86 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -60.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.61 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 3.4 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 24.1% 23.1% 20.5% 18.4% 14.4% 21.1% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.9% 1.0% 0.4% 0.3% 0.5% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.3% 8.0% 7.0% 6.2% 5.0% 7.2% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 43.0% 48.0% 27.0% 22.0% 15.0% 6.0% 1.0% 0.0% SDCON: 25.6% 28.0% 17.0% 14.1% 10.0% 6.6% 0.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/18/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##