* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/18/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 67 69 70 69 70 71 75 77 88 94 93 88 80 74 68 64 V (KT) LAND 65 67 69 70 69 70 71 75 77 88 94 93 88 80 74 68 64 V (KT) LGEM 65 69 71 73 74 75 77 78 78 81 85 83 78 73 67 61 54 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 13 17 19 19 19 17 14 16 23 29 33 19 9 11 10 4 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -6 -6 -1 0 3 4 6 1 -2 -6 -5 -5 -2 -6 0 SHEAR DIR 264 267 268 262 253 243 234 249 235 233 220 219 245 294 290 289 311 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.9 27.7 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.6 27.6 27.3 26.5 26.0 25.5 24.8 24.1 22.8 POT. INT. (KT) 142 142 143 142 140 144 141 140 139 139 136 128 123 117 110 103 89 200 MB T (C) -50.8 -50.9 -51.1 -50.8 -50.8 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -50.8 -51.4 -51.5 -52.0 -52.8 -53.7 -53.5 -54.2 -54.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.8 0.8 1.0 1.3 1.1 0.8 1.3 1.7 1.6 0.4 0.7 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.4 TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 7 8 8 7 8 7 6 5 5 6 7 6 5 3 2 700-500 MB RH 39 42 45 46 47 51 50 55 62 58 54 55 56 61 64 67 64 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 21 21 22 21 23 24 26 27 33 37 37 35 33 31 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 50 51 50 51 48 33 14 10 31 77 110 118 106 95 70 48 35 200 MB DIV -14 -7 3 17 3 20 19 30 56 75 61 28 19 42 21 19 10 700-850 TADV -4 0 1 2 0 9 14 14 10 10 19 19 9 6 7 4 4 LAND (KM) 597 676 756 838 922 1048 1163 1241 1235 1233 1282 1395 1544 1707 1855 2027 1860 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.7 20.9 21.8 22.9 24.2 25.5 26.9 28.6 30.4 32.2 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.8 166.6 167.4 168.3 169.1 170.4 171.5 172.1 171.7 171.1 170.6 170.5 170.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 8 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 24 26 22 20 18 23 16 15 16 10 9 2 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 657 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 69.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 10.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -1. -5. -9. -12. -16. -19. -23. -27. -30. -32. -33. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 0. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 4. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 5. 5. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 4. 7. 10. 12. 13. 14. 14. 14. 15. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 2. 3. 7. 9. 18. 22. 21. 17. 13. 10. 7. 5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 5. 4. 5. 6. 10. 12. 23. 29. 28. 23. 15. 9. 3. -1. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 20.4 165.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/18/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 77.0 30.0 to 148.5 0.40 3.9 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 4.3 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 21.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.49 4.1 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 555.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.28 -2.0 D200 (10**7s-1) : 0.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.16 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.7 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.63 3.3 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 11.7 60.4 to 0.0 0.81 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -50.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.47 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 24% is 3.8 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 1.9 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 23% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 21% is 3.1 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 23.9% 23.5% 22.6% 22.5% 15.3% 20.9% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.5% 0.6% 0.2% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 8.1% 8.1% 7.6% 7.5% 5.2% 7.1% 0.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 10.0% 37.0% 22.0% 22.0% 17.0% 18.0% 5.0% 0.0% SDCON: 9.0% 22.5% 14.8% 14.7% 11.1% 12.5% 2.6% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/18/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=3 NFAIL=4 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##