* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/18/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 60 63 65 67 68 67 68 70 74 78 94 93 88 82 77 72 68 V (KT) LAND 60 63 65 67 68 67 68 70 74 78 94 93 88 82 77 72 68 V (KT) LGEM 60 64 67 69 71 72 73 73 73 77 84 86 82 76 69 63 57 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 9 12 17 19 18 20 16 19 14 23 29 18 10 8 7 13 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -4 -4 -6 -5 0 1 3 1 3 -3 -6 -4 -4 -4 -4 -7 SHEAR DIR 281 261 262 262 261 257 236 225 257 227 224 214 238 255 270 310 299 SST (C) 27.8 27.9 28.0 28.0 27.8 28.1 28.1 27.8 27.7 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.1 25.6 25.2 24.5 23.6 POT. INT. (KT) 142 143 144 143 141 144 144 141 139 141 139 136 125 118 114 107 98 200 MB T (C) -50.7 -50.9 -51.0 -51.2 -51.1 -51.1 -51.3 -51.5 -51.2 -51.1 -51.5 -51.9 -52.6 -52.9 -53.5 -53.5 -54.1 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.6 1.0 0.8 1.0 0.8 2.0 1.3 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 7 8 7 7 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 41 41 44 45 45 49 52 53 57 61 59 60 60 66 67 66 65 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 19 20 21 21 21 22 23 26 28 39 38 36 34 33 30 29 850 MB ENV VOR 57 51 54 51 53 44 29 10 14 41 79 94 67 62 57 37 35 200 MB DIV -6 -7 0 7 13 1 40 15 55 63 81 43 9 18 43 32 1 700-850 TADV 0 -2 0 0 1 2 11 16 17 12 14 12 9 9 11 6 9 LAND (KM) 521 613 708 793 878 1011 1140 1229 1289 1292 1274 1329 1505 1653 1773 1929 1916 LAT (DEG N) 20.3 20.3 20.4 20.5 20.5 21.2 22.1 23.4 24.6 25.8 27.2 29.1 31.7 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 165.0 166.0 166.9 167.8 168.6 170.0 171.3 172.1 172.5 172.2 171.4 170.8 170.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 8 7 8 7 7 6 7 9 11 11 7 7 9 10 HEAT CONTENT 25 25 25 22 18 26 21 12 15 16 7 9 0 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 609 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 13.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 11.9 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. -0. -3. -5. -8. -11. -14. -16. -19. -22. -24. -25. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 7. 8. 8. 7. 5. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 4. PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 13. 14. 14. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 2. 1. 1. 3. 5. 9. 12. 26. 23. 19. 15. 12. 9. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 5. 7. 8. 7. 8. 10. 14. 18. 34. 33. 28. 22. 17. 12. 8. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 60. LAT, LON: 20.3 165.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/18/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.44 6.6 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.48 6.5 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 19.1 34.9 to 7.7 0.58 7.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 511.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.33 -3.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : 1.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.17 1.6 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 60.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.97 9.2 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 13.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.68 5.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 25.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.23 1.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 19.1 60.4 to 0.0 0.68 1.4 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -52.7 -15.6 to -90.4 0.50 -0.3 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 26% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 37% is 3.0 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 36% is 4.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 30% is 4.8 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 21% is 4.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 26.2% 37.1% 35.8% 29.9% 20.6% 22.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 1.8% 1.8% 0.9% 0.7% 1.0% 0.6% 1.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 9.4% 13.0% 12.2% 10.2% 7.2% 7.6% 0.4% 0.0% DTOPS: 11.0% 38.0% 27.0% 23.0% 14.0% 25.0% 5.0% 0.0% SDCON: 10.2% 25.5% 19.6% 16.6% 10.6% 16.3% 2.7% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/18/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##