* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/17/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 56 57 58 60 58 58 60 63 66 76 84 82 79 74 71 67 V (KT) LAND 55 56 57 58 60 58 58 60 63 66 76 84 82 79 74 71 67 V (KT) LGEM 55 56 58 59 60 61 62 62 62 65 71 78 79 77 75 73 69 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 13 17 18 19 20 16 16 17 26 35 16 19 21 19 17 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -2 -4 -4 -4 -3 0 3 2 3 0 -6 -7 -7 -9 -5 -11 SHEAR DIR 304 291 259 257 260 262 260 240 255 240 236 225 222 252 258 243 249 SST (C) 27.3 27.7 27.8 28.0 28.0 27.7 28.2 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.0 26.2 25.7 25.2 24.4 POT. INT. (KT) 137 141 142 144 143 140 145 142 140 140 141 139 134 125 120 114 106 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.2 -51.2 -51.4 -51.2 -51.5 -51.1 -51.5 -51.6 -52.0 -52.7 -53.6 -53.5 -54.9 200 MB VXT (C) 0.6 0.5 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.1 0.9 1.2 2.0 0.8 1.1 0.8 0.7 0.5 TH_E DEV (C) 6 7 7 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 6 6 6 6 5 4 2 700-500 MB RH 40 42 40 43 45 47 52 53 58 62 62 60 61 61 66 71 74 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 18 19 18 20 19 20 21 23 25 31 37 36 35 33 32 29 850 MB ENV VOR 44 53 50 53 55 42 30 14 8 17 57 94 97 86 71 59 56 200 MB DIV -17 -11 -2 11 0 -4 15 23 18 62 83 79 24 1 36 21 26 700-850 TADV 1 1 -3 -2 -1 -1 6 10 17 11 14 18 12 9 11 7 5 LAND (KM) 410 502 597 687 778 913 1049 1172 1242 1281 1296 1298 1340 1433 1570 1716 1876 LAT (DEG N) 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.4 20.8 21.6 22.6 23.6 24.7 25.9 27.5 29.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 163.9 164.9 165.8 166.7 167.6 169.0 170.4 171.6 172.2 172.4 172.2 171.5 170.6 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 8 8 8 7 8 6 6 5 7 10 10 9 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 13 25 24 26 22 17 25 16 12 16 16 7 6 0 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 589 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.9 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 47.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 8.8 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -10. -12. -13. -16. -16. -17. -16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 7. 7. 5. 2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 13. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 2. 1. 2. 3. 6. 9. 17. 23. 20. 17. 13. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 21. 29. 27. 24. 19. 16. 12. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.4 163.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/17/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 86.2 30.0 to 148.5 0.47 5.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.41 3.9 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.9 34.9 to 7.7 0.59 5.2 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 470.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.37 -2.9 D200 (10**7s-1) : -3.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 1.0 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 6.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 14.9 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 3.6 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 24.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.22 1.2 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.8 60.4 to 0.0 0.74 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -44.6 -15.6 to -90.4 0.39 -0.2 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 28% is 2.2 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 24% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 3.5 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 22% is 3.3 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 13.5% 27.6% 24.2% 18.8% 14.5% 22.4% 16.4% 0.0% Logistic: 1.5% 2.3% 1.0% 0.7% 0.8% 0.6% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 5.0% 10.0% 8.4% 6.5% 5.1% 7.7% 5.6% 0.0% DTOPS: 4.0% 22.0% 12.0% 8.0% 7.0% 18.0% 15.0% 0.0% SDCON: 4.5% 16.0% 10.2% 7.2% 6.0% 12.8% 10.3% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/17/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##