* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/17/26 12 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 49 49 50 50 51 51 53 54 57 63 71 73 74 74 73 69 V (KT) LAND 50 49 49 50 50 51 51 53 54 57 63 71 73 74 74 73 69 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 47 47 48 49 51 53 54 59 66 74 83 85 80 72 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 11 11 14 17 18 23 17 18 17 20 22 26 19 13 10 19 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -2 -2 -5 -2 -4 0 1 4 0 0 -2 -5 -1 1 1 -1 SHEAR DIR 316 301 280 255 261 269 265 244 249 252 242 228 231 225 244 274 273 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.7 27.8 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.1 28.0 27.9 27.8 27.8 27.5 27.2 26.1 25.6 25.2 POT. INT. (KT) 137 136 141 142 144 142 143 144 142 141 140 141 138 136 124 118 114 200 MB T (C) -51.0 -50.9 -50.8 -50.9 -50.9 -51.1 -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.3 -51.3 -51.7 -51.9 -52.0 -52.2 -52.3 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.5 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.0 1.1 0.7 1.8 2.2 1.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 1.3 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 7 7 7 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 7 6 4 3 700-500 MB RH 39 40 43 43 44 49 52 54 58 60 63 57 54 52 51 53 57 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 20 20 19 20 20 21 21 23 27 31 32 34 34 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 35 44 56 54 58 48 34 24 13 7 26 52 59 42 54 33 29 200 MB DIV -14 -21 -1 5 2 4 2 39 23 48 46 59 29 33 10 24 27 700-850 TADV 2 1 2 -2 -1 4 4 12 12 12 10 9 13 13 15 18 10 LAND (KM) 311 400 492 590 690 847 993 1130 1224 1285 1313 1322 1311 1398 1554 1684 1760 LAT (DEG N) 20.5 20.4 20.3 20.3 20.3 20.5 21.0 22.0 22.8 23.8 24.8 26.1 27.4 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 162.9 163.8 164.7 165.7 166.7 168.3 169.8 171.2 172.1 172.6 172.7 172.4 171.7 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 9 9 8 8 7 7 5 5 6 7 8 10 10 8 6 HEAT CONTENT 11 12 23 24 26 20 26 23 15 13 15 15 7 8 0 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 604 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.4 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 24.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 7.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. -0. -1. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 4. 1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 8. 10. 13. 14. 14. 15. 16. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 6. 11. 16. 15. 16. 15. 14. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. -6. -7. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 1. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 7. 13. 21. 23. 24. 24. 23. 19. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.5 162.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/17/26 12 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 89.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.51 4.5 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 18.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.60 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 426.0 800.8 to -82.5 0.42 -2.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.8 -33.0 to 170.5 0.13 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.5 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.4 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 21.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.19 0.9 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 22.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.63 0.8 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -32.9 -15.6 to -90.4 0.23 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 10% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 20% is 3.0 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.5% 22.3% 18.7% 14.6% 12.0% 20.2% 15.7% 0.0% Logistic: 0.4% 1.1% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.6% 7.8% 6.4% 5.0% 4.1% 6.8% 5.2% 0.0% DTOPS: 2.0% 11.0% 3.0% 1.0% 1.0% 18.0% 13.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.8% 9.4% 4.7% 3.0% 2.5% 12.4% 9.1% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/17/26 12 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##