* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/17/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 50 48 47 47 47 49 50 50 54 56 60 68 72 75 76 76 73 V (KT) LAND 50 48 47 47 47 49 50 50 54 56 60 68 72 75 76 76 73 V (KT) LGEM 50 48 47 46 46 48 50 52 53 56 61 67 74 82 87 87 84 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 13 13 11 12 22 20 21 18 19 18 19 18 20 20 26 32 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -3 -1 -2 -4 -4 -2 0 3 0 -2 -2 0 -3 0 -3 -2 SHEAR DIR 313 320 311 284 254 275 263 266 238 252 244 235 231 231 245 272 254 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.4 27.8 27.9 28.0 27.8 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.7 27.4 26.6 26.0 25.7 POT. INT. (KT) 136 136 138 142 143 143 141 147 144 145 144 144 141 138 129 122 118 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.0 -51.0 -50.9 -51.3 -51.3 -51.6 -51.5 -51.6 -51.4 -51.9 -51.6 -51.9 -51.5 -52.2 -52.0 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.6 0.8 0.7 0.7 1.0 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.1 1.1 1.2 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 8 7 7 7 7 6 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 39 40 41 42 42 48 49 55 54 58 61 60 59 56 58 61 61 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 18 19 19 18 20 20 20 21 22 25 29 30 32 33 34 34 850 MB ENV VOR 47 37 41 47 51 54 37 29 19 6 8 31 43 40 28 14 19 200 MB DIV -10 -17 -25 -6 -12 -1 1 18 23 26 37 65 57 38 30 34 42 700-850 TADV 1 3 3 1 -3 0 0 7 14 12 8 9 10 9 13 13 7 LAND (KM) 220 320 425 521 617 807 946 1091 1243 1351 1410 1419 1383 1400 1472 1569 1670 LAT (DEG N) 20.7 20.6 20.5 20.5 20.4 20.5 20.7 21.4 22.5 23.4 24.1 25.1 26.5 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 162.0 163.0 164.1 165.0 166.0 167.9 169.3 170.8 172.3 173.3 173.8 173.7 172.9 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 9 9 7 7 8 7 5 4 6 9 10 8 6 5 HEAT CONTENT 9 11 16 25 25 21 20 29 22 26 21 20 9 11 1 0 0 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 18.8 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 32.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.7 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 0. 0. -0. -2. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 0. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 15. 15. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. 0. -0. -0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 5. 8. 13. 13. 14. 13. 13. 11. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 1. 1. 1. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. -4. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -3. -3. -1. -0. 0. 4. 6. 10. 18. 22. 25. 26. 26. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 50. LAT, LON: 20.7 162.0 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/17/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 88.9 30.0 to 148.5 0.50 4.2 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.0 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 17.5 34.9 to 7.7 0.64 4.5 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 436.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.41 -2.5 D200 (10**7s-1) : -14.0 -33.0 to 170.5 0.09 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 50.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.78 4.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 18.8 37.8 to 2.1 0.53 2.4 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 19.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.18 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 25.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.58 0.7 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -28.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.17 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.4 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 19% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 2.0 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.5 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 8.9% 19.4% 16.8% 13.6% 11.0% 18.2% 14.5% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 1.1% 0.5% 0.2% 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.1% 6.8% 5.8% 4.6% 3.8% 6.1% 4.8% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 6.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 7.0% 12.0% 2.0% SDCON: 2.0% 6.4% 3.9% 2.8% 2.4% 6.5% 8.4% 1.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/17/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##