* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/17/26 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 54 53 53 52 53 53 53 54 53 54 60 65 69 69 68 66 V (KT) LAND 55 54 53 53 52 53 53 53 54 53 54 60 65 69 69 68 66 V (KT) LGEM 55 53 52 51 50 52 53 55 57 59 60 62 68 77 85 89 90 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 11 10 14 15 15 16 18 24 22 23 17 23 30 28 9 10 9 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 0 0 -1 -1 -3 0 3 5 7 4 0 -6 -3 -1 -5 SHEAR DIR 323 330 327 316 304 277 281 270 265 275 282 281 259 260 232 228 219 SST (C) 27.5 27.2 27.1 27.5 27.8 28.0 27.9 28.3 28.1 28.3 28.0 28.2 28.3 28.2 28.0 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 140 137 135 139 142 144 143 147 144 146 143 144 145 144 141 137 135 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.3 -51.3 -51.4 -51.7 -51.8 -52.1 -52.2 -52.4 -52.7 -53.3 -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 200 MB VXT (C) 0.9 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.6 1.1 1.2 0.5 0.7 1.1 TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 41 42 41 42 43 46 48 50 52 51 51 53 46 40 39 42 43 MODEL VTX (KT) 20 20 19 19 19 19 20 19 20 20 20 24 27 31 32 32 32 850 MB ENV VOR 51 44 33 31 37 49 43 42 32 22 23 48 74 96 118 120 87 200 MB DIV 4 -6 -19 -32 -15 -19 0 6 21 1 21 16 34 40 34 3 17 700-850 TADV 4 1 0 1 1 -4 -3 -4 5 10 6 3 6 6 10 11 13 LAND (KM) 131 222 339 444 551 770 963 1133 1284 1429 1567 1677 1756 1821 1868 1890 1891 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 20.9 21.0 21.0 21.0 20.8 20.9 21.4 22.1 22.9 23.7 24.5 25.1 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 160.9 162.2 163.4 164.5 165.5 167.6 169.5 171.2 172.7 174.1 175.4 176.4 177.1 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 14 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 7 8 6 5 4 5 4 4 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 9 10 21 24 22 24 27 23 25 11 17 18 9 11 11 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):265/ 15 CX,CY: -14/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 595 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.3 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 64.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 5.6 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 8. 10. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -0. 5. 7. 11. 11. 10. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. 5. 10. 14. 14. 13. 11. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.8 160.9 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/17/26 00 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 83.6 30.0 to 148.5 0.45 4.0 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -5.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.26 2.1 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 4.0 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 471.2 800.8 to -82.5 0.37 -2.4 D200 (10**7s-1) : -13.6 -33.0 to 170.5 0.10 0.5 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.3 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.3 37.8 to 2.1 0.74 3.5 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 18.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.17 0.8 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 18.4 60.4 to 0.0 0.70 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -42.2 -15.6 to -90.4 0.36 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 11% is 1.7 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 22% is 1.8 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 15% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 12% is 2.9 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 19% is 2.8 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 10.7% 22.1% 18.5% 14.9% 12.0% 19.0% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.8% 0.4% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.7% 7.6% 6.3% 5.0% 4.1% 6.4% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 5.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 5.0% 5.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.3% 6.3% 3.6% 3.0% 2.5% 5.7% 2.5% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/17/26 00 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##