* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/16/26 18 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 52 51 50 51 53 55 56 56 58 59 59 61 60 60 62 V (KT) LAND 55 53 52 51 50 51 53 55 56 56 58 59 59 61 60 60 62 V (KT) LGEM 55 52 50 49 48 49 52 54 56 57 58 58 58 60 66 74 81 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 12 10 10 14 16 14 20 23 23 20 20 17 23 19 26 24 12 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -2 -3 0 0 -4 -1 -2 2 3 8 6 3 0 -2 0 8 SHEAR DIR 294 310 315 308 305 276 284 272 271 265 281 270 266 258 280 261 226 SST (C) 27.3 27.3 27.4 27.3 27.1 27.8 27.9 28.1 28.2 28.0 28.3 28.0 28.1 28.3 28.1 27.6 27.4 POT. INT. (KT) 138 138 139 137 135 142 143 145 146 143 146 142 143 146 144 138 135 200 MB T (C) -50.9 -50.9 -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -50.8 -51.2 -51.2 -51.7 -51.7 -52.2 -52.1 -52.7 -53.0 -54.0 -53.2 -53.4 200 MB VXT (C) 1.1 0.8 1.0 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.9 1.0 TH_E DEV (C) 5 5 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 8 9 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 40 43 42 42 44 45 49 50 52 51 52 54 50 44 37 37 40 MODEL VTX (KT) 19 20 20 20 19 20 21 21 21 20 21 21 20 20 20 21 24 850 MB ENV VOR 45 60 54 36 33 45 52 50 47 40 27 32 52 63 55 75 81 200 MB DIV -18 7 -7 -2 -7 -18 -6 0 5 18 9 2 1 6 14 18 41 700-850 TADV 6 2 -2 -2 1 -3 -4 -3 4 6 6 2 0 -3 0 3 15 LAND (KM) 91 88 146 261 382 592 797 990 1183 1346 1472 1578 1672 1782 1902 1973 1992 LAT (DEG N) 20.8 21.0 21.2 21.3 21.3 21.0 21.0 21.2 21.6 22.3 23.2 23.8 24.0 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 158.8 160.2 161.5 162.7 163.9 165.9 167.9 169.8 171.7 173.3 174.5 175.5 176.4 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 12 11 10 9 9 9 8 8 6 5 5 7 7 5 3 HEAT CONTENT 16 15 11 10 10 23 21 27 24 28 20 11 15 19 7 9 10 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):305/ 13 CX,CY: -10/ 7 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 702 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 15.1 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 54.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 3.0 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -8. -7. -6. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 4. 3. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 0. -3. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 11. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 2. 2. 2. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. -0. 1. 3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -2. -0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. -2. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 6. 5. 5. 7. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 55. LAT, LON: 20.8 158.8 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/16/26 18 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 82.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.44 3.8 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : -10.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.18 1.4 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.3 34.9 to 7.7 0.54 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 463.4 800.8 to -82.5 0.38 -2.3 D200 (10**7s-1) : -5.4 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.7 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 55.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.93 5.0 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 15.1 37.8 to 2.1 0.64 2.9 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 14.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.13 0.6 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 15.5 60.4 to 0.0 0.74 0.9 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -30.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.19 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 9% is 1.5 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 17% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.2 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 11% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 14% is 2.4 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 9.4% 19.7% 16.6% 13.6% 11.1% 18.2% 14.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 3.2% 6.6% 5.6% 4.5% 3.7% 6.1% 4.7% 0.0% DTOPS: 1.0% 2.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 2.0% 2.0% 1.0% SDCON: 2.1% 4.3% 3.3% 2.7% 1.8% 4.0% 3.3% 0.5% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/16/26 18 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##