* GFS version * * EAST PACIFIC 2026 SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE * * LALA CP012026 08/16/26 06 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 V (KT) NO LAND 65 64 63 63 63 62 63 65 65 65 66 70 75 79 82 87 88 V (KT) LAND 65 64 63 63 63 62 63 65 65 65 66 70 75 79 82 87 88 V (KT) LGEM 65 64 63 62 62 60 60 61 61 62 62 64 68 73 82 92 100 Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP SHEAR (KT) 17 18 15 13 10 18 11 15 18 24 22 19 14 24 34 26 30 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -1 -3 -4 -2 -2 -3 0 -2 0 6 5 1 1 -11 -3 -5 SHEAR DIR 277 293 316 327 316 310 286 285 270 262 245 255 251 258 251 248 233 SST (C) 27.6 27.4 27.6 27.7 27.4 27.5 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.4 28.0 28.3 28.0 28.0 28.1 28.2 27.6 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 141 143 139 139 143 144 143 148 144 146 142 142 143 145 139 200 MB T (C) -50.2 -50.6 -51.0 -51.0 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.5 -51.1 -51.4 -51.1 -51.6 -51.6 -51.9 -52.3 -53.0 -52.8 200 MB VXT (C) 1.2 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.9 0.8 0.7 1.2 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.8 TH_E DEV (C) 7 6 6 6 6 6 7 7 7 7 8 8 8 9 9 9 9 700-500 MB RH 43 42 43 44 45 49 49 52 53 55 54 54 51 48 41 40 39 MODEL VTX (KT) 18 19 19 19 20 20 20 21 22 21 21 23 26 28 30 34 35 850 MB ENV VOR 56 45 50 51 47 46 57 71 65 60 57 49 59 70 84 102 110 200 MB DIV 4 -16 -12 -1 4 -10 -19 -4 23 6 16 25 48 27 27 21 41 700-850 TADV 8 9 1 1 1 0 -6 -4 0 7 7 8 5 4 4 13 10 LAND (KM) 67 148 156 172 232 420 623 834 989 1155 1336 1480 1574 1660 1718 1704 1637 LAT (DEG N) 19.1 19.6 20.1 20.3 20.4 20.4 20.2 20.2 20.6 21.2 22.0 22.7 23.3 xx.x xx.x xx.x xx.x LONG(DEG W) 156.5 157.7 158.9 160.4 161.9 164.0 166.0 168.1 169.7 171.4 173.2 174.6 175.5 xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x xxx.x STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 13 14 12 9 9 9 8 9 8 6 5 4 4 6 7 HEAT CONTENT 15 9 18 19 10 17 26 20 25 27 25 22 13 14 17 16 9 FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):310/ 10 CX,CY: -7/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 539 (MEAN=586) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 17.6 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 76.0 (MEAN=65.0) PRELIM RI PROB (DV .GE. 35 KT IN 36 HR): 6.4 INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 132 144 156 168 -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -10. -11. -13. -13. -12. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -1. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 18. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. -4. MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 3. 3. 5. 8. 9. 10. 13. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -0. 1. 1. 2. 850-700 T ADVEC -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. RI POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -0. 0. -0. 1. 5. 10. 14. 17. 22. 23. CURRENT MAX WIND (KT): 65. LAT, LON: 19.1 156.5 **2026 E. Pacific RI INDEX CP012026 LALA 08/16/26 06 UTC ** (SHIPS-RII PREDICTOR TABLE for 30 KT OR MORE MAXIMUM WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24-h) Predictor Value RI Predictor Range Scaled Value(0-1) % Contribution POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 75.5 30.0 to 148.5 0.38 3.4 12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT) : 0.0 -22.0 to 44.0 0.33 2.6 MULTI-LAYER SHEAR (KT) : 20.8 34.9 to 7.7 0.52 3.8 BL DRY-AIR FLUX (W/M2) : 563.6 800.8 to -82.5 0.27 -1.7 D200 (10**7s-1) : -4.2 -33.0 to 170.5 0.14 0.8 MAXIMUM WIND (KT) : 65.0 22.5 to 132.0 0.90 5.1 STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 17.6 37.8 to 2.1 0.57 2.7 OCEAN HEAT CONTENT(KJ/CM2) : 16.0 0.0 to 107.8 0.15 0.7 %area of TPW <45 mm upshear : 7.2 60.4 to 0.0 0.88 1.1 Avg. IR BT 0-120 km (deg C) : -45.0 -15.6 to -90.4 0.39 -0.1 SHIPS Prob RI for 20kt/ 12hr RI threshold= 12% is 1.9 times climatological mean ( 6.3%) SHIPS Prob RI for 25kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 20% is 1.6 times climatological mean (12.5%) SHIPS Prob RI for 30kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.1 times climatological mean ( 8.6%) SHIPS Prob RI for 35kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 16% is 2.6 times climatological mean ( 6.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 40kt/ 24hr RI threshold= 13% is 3.2 times climatological mean ( 4.2%) SHIPS Prob RI for 45kt/ 36hr RI threshold= 18% is 2.7 times climatological mean ( 6.7%) SHIPS Prob RI for 55kt/ 48hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 5.9%) SHIPS Prob RI for 65kt/ 72hr RI threshold= 0% is 0.0 times climatological mean ( 4.7%) Matrix of RI probabilities ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ RI (kt / h) | 20/12 | 25/24 | 30/24 | 35/24 | 40/24 | 45/36 | 55/48 |65/72 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------ SHIPS-RII: 11.8% 20.3% 18.4% 16.3% 13.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0% Logistic: 0.3% 0.9% 0.4% 0.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.3% 0.1% Bayesian: 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% Consensus: 4.0% 7.1% 6.3% 5.5% 4.5% 6.2% 0.1% 0.0% DTOPS: 0.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% SDCON: 2.0% 4.0% 3.6% 3.2% 2.7% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0% ## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) CP012026 LALA 08/16/26 06 UTC ## ## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=4 NFAIL=3 ## ## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##